Bargain buy Milenkovic could prove Nottingham Forest's most important summer business

 

Nikola Milenkovic is a big signing for Nottingham Forest in more ways than one. On Thursday, the Premier League side confirmed the capture of the Serbian from Serie A side Fiorentina for a reported £12m. That fee in itself is a bargain. In his seven years in Florence, Milenkovic established himself as one of the most recognisable centre-backs in Italian football. 

 

The towering 26-year-old has previously been linked with a move to the Premier League and it's Forest who have since won the race to lure Milenkovic to England. He could turn out to be their most important addition this summer. 

 

It's no secret that Forest struggled at set-pieces last season. Excluding penalties, they conceded more goals from set-piece situations (22) than any other side in England's top tier last term. In addition, they struggled to convert from these situations, scoring just seven set-piece goals in the 2023/24 campaign; only three teams netted fewer. 

 

With that in mind, Forest have sought to improve their inability to keep out opponents from deadball situations. Indeed, Carlos Miguel has joined from Brazilian side Corinthians, the 25-year-old goalkeeper standing at a whopping 6ft8in. Combined with the addition of 6ft5in Milenkovic, and the average height of Forest's backline has quite literally shot up. 

 

 

Milenkovic, though, is the key. Not only have Forest improved in a very important area, they have done so with a player who'll help at both ends of the pitch. Of the 297 players to have contested 25 or more aerial duels, Milenkovic returned the best aerial success rate (79.4%) in Serie A last season. 

 

This is vital for a Forest side that saw centre-back Murillo win just 48.7% of his headed battles and defensive shield Ibrahim Sangare return an aerial success rate of just 36%. Forest needed a dominant defender to help protect the goal, and Milenkovic is one who should seamlessly adjust to the rigours of Premier League football. 

 

 

Furthermore, while he didn't score in 2023/24, the Serb has also developed a statistically calculated WhoScored style of play of 'Indirect set-piece threat'. The centre-back will help repel attacking set-pieces while enable Forest to build upon the number of goals they scored from corners or free-kicks. 

 

And it's not just Milenkovic's dominance in the air that will come in handy for Nuno's side. Forest conceded the fifth most goals (67) in the Premier League last season, so a centre-back with the positional awareness of the Serbia international is a huge boost to getting that number down. A return of 3.2 clearances per 90 ranked 26th in Serie A last season, with Milenkovic routinely in the right place at the right time to alleviate pressure on the Fiorentina goal. He should have no issues transferring this quality of his game to the Premier League. 

 

In addition, considering Forest's possession average of just 40.1% - only relegated Sheffield United (35%) averaged lower - they will often look to hit opponents on the counter attack. It's no coincidence that no team scored more counter-attacking goals than Forest (9) in the Premier League last season, and not only will a goalkeeper with Miguel's impressive distribution help spring forward quickly; so too will Milenkovic's commendable ability to pick out a teammate from range. 

 

A return of 3.8 accurate long balls per 90 ranked 16th of outfield players in Serie A last season, so an ability to get the ball upfield quickly or to the flanks to maximise the widemen at Nuno's disposal - notably Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi - means Forest should rank highly for counter-attacking goals once more. 

 

Having finished just six points above the dropzone last season, albeit with a four-point penalty, the ability to lure a centre-back of Milenkovic's calibre is notable. For such a low fee, he's an early contender for signing of the season, particularly if he can play a key role in tightening up Forest's backline.

Bargain buy Milenkovic could prove Nottingham Forest's most important summer business