According to understat, Everton have only scored 9 goals from an XG of 17.66 (greatest difference in the league) and West Ham have conceded only 16 goals from an XA of 20.04 (second greatest difference in league). Basically it shouldn't be surprising that Everton have scored due to regression to the mean.
@MEHJones Can you share more light on this. What does XG mean, and how can it make my analysis better. You can point me to a write up on it. Thank you.
@DanielTobi0 The Athletic have done some good videos on it which you can find on YouTube. It's essentially a measure of chance quality based on the location a shot is taken from and sometimes other factors (e.g. number of player in front of the goal, goalkeeper location, which part of the body used to hit the ball). It's not brilliant for predicting the outcome of one match but it's a good measure of form over 8-12 matches.
8 of 9 WestHam’s games this season had both the teams found back of the net. I have also noticed, 8 of 9 in WestHam games had a goal in both the halves. |
BTTS & o2.5 - 1.89
OK, apparently West Ham are bang average.
According to understat, Everton have only scored 9 goals from an XG of 17.66 (greatest difference in the league) and West Ham have conceded only 16 goals from an XA of 20.04 (second greatest difference in league). Basically it shouldn't be surprising that Everton have scored due to regression to the mean.
@MEHJones Can you share more light on this. What does XG mean, and how can it make my analysis better. You can point me to a write up on it. Thank you.
@DanielTobi0 The Athletic have done some good videos on it which you can find on YouTube. It's essentially a measure of chance quality based on the location a shot is taken from and sometimes other factors (e.g. number of player in front of the goal, goalkeeper location, which part of the body used to hit the ball). It's not brilliant for predicting the outcome of one match but it's a good measure of form over 8-12 matches.
Draw
West Ham Win.
West Ham win.
X2
8 of 9 WestHam’s games this season had both the teams found back of the net. I have also noticed, 8 of 9 in WestHam games had a goal in both the halves. | BTTS & o2.5 - 1.89
Bet W1
2-1 hammers to win
The Premier League want Everton to be given a huge points deduction if they are found guilty of breaching financial fair play rules.
3-1 westham
West Ham have scored in every EPL game this season.