Revealed: Bayern's difficult run-in opens door for shock Bundesliga title winner

As the Bundesliga returns on Saturday, and with just nine games to go, there is still plenty to play for in Germany's top tier. Just six points separate the top four and while Bayern Munich return to action as the form team, their run in is hardly the most favourable. Indeed, FC Hollywood are still to play Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and Gladbach, so despite a four-point gap between themselves and second-placed Dortmund, the don't have a straight shot at their eighth successive title. 

Using WhoScored.com's unique rating system, we assessed the difficulty of each Bundesliga side's run in using the home and away rating of their respective opponents to come up with a final score against a league average. In this instance, the difficulty of Bayern Munich's run in is 6.755, which is slighty higher than the Bundesliga average of 6.75. They are still to tavel to Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen, two possible banana skins in their quest for glory, but given their away form is the best in the league; Hansi Flick will be confident of successfully navigating those fixtures. 

For second-placed Dortmund, the difficulty of their run in is slighty higher than Bayern's at 7.558, and they return to domestic action with a bang as they gear up for Saturday's welcome of rivals Schalke in the Revierderby. The home action doesn't let up as they welcome Bayern in Der Klassiker later this month and they'll be looking to home advantage to close the gap between themselves and Germany's most successful team. 

Dortmund have the best home record in the Bundesliga having picked up 30 of a possible 36 points at the Westfalenstadion, but without their famous Yellow Wall to intimidate visitors, they lose a crucial edge. Meetings with Wolfsburg and RB Leipzig on the road may dent their title push and it's the latter who will fancy their chances of closing the gap between themselves and Bayern Munich. 

RB Leipzig's fixture difficulty is just 6.671, far easier than Bayern Munich and Dortmund according to WhoScored.com's rating system. Their form isn't great coming into the final nine games of 2019/20, but having faced Gladbach, Bayern, Schalke and Bayer Leverkusen in their last six league outings and to remain in the title hunt speaks volumes of the fine work Julian Nagelsmann has carried out in his debut campaign for Die Roten Bullen. 

No team has shipped fewer goals (26) than RB Leipzig, while only two have scored more than Nagelsmann's side (62) and spearheaded by the dangerous Timo Werner, they will more than fancy their chances of a late surge for glory. They face just two top half sides between now and the end of June in Freiburg this weekend and, crucially, Dortmund, the latter of which could prove decisive in the penultimate gameweek of the campaign. 

RB Leipzig's recent history with Dortmund isn't great - they have won only two of the last seven meetings between the pair, and just one of three at home - so this will be a crunch clash in the title push, but given the ease of RB Leipzig's fixtures up until the welcome of Dortmund; they will be confident of sitting closer to Bayern than they are now. 

As far as the team as with the easiest run in, however, you don't have to look too far down the table. FC Koln currently sit 10th in the Bundesliga, which is all the more impressive given they won only one of their opening seven league matches and were 17th by the time the second international break of the campaign came around. However, since then, their form has U-turned and over the last 18 league matches, their return of 28 points is the sixth best in the division. In 2020 alone, only three teams have earned more points.

Their recent form is the fifth best in Germany's top tier and a fixture difficulty of just 6.658 is the lowest in the Bundesliga. They are still to face RB Leipzig and Bayer Leverkusen over the next nine gameweeks, yet in turn, take on four of the current bottom five to round out 2019/20, starting with the weekend's welcome of Mainz 05. 

And it's Mainz 05 who have the hardest run in this season with their fixture difficulty coming in at 6.854. They sit just four points above the relegation playoff spot and are still to take on RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen over the coming weeks. Crucial relegation six-pointers with Augsburg and Werder Bremen next month are also on the horizon and Mainz will aim to be in a better position than they are now in order to give themselves some breathing space above the dropzone before the close of the campaign. 

The penultimate round of action for the Bundesliga season is vital at both ends of the pitch as not only do RB Leipzig take on Borussia Dortmund, but Werder Bremen make the trip to Mainz 05 in a vital relegation scrap. As the form guide shows, Werder Bremen rank 17th having failed to win their last six league outings, losing five. That said, they have an easier run in than Mainz 05 with a WhoScored fixture difficulty rating of 6.739, but back-to-back trips to relegation rivals Paderborn and Mainz will be significant as to whether they beat the drop or keep their head above water come June 27th.