Player Focus: Fernando Llorente (Athletic Bilbao)

Ever since Marcelo Bielsa agreed to have a second crack at La Liga by returning to take charge of Athletic Bilbao last summer, they have been one of Spain’s most intriguing storylines.

The match on the surface wasn’t exactly a perfect one. Bielsa’s intense pressing and possession based football hadn’t historically been the norm at San Mamés. Yet if one player bridges that gap between Athletic past and present it is their most important one.

Fernando Llorente scored in all three league games last week as seven points from nine reignited the Basques’ Champions League ambitions.

That return shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, as Sunday’s winner over Mallorca was Llorente’s 28th of the season in all competitions and his 20th of 2012. In a season dominated by the goalscorer, that number puts him ahead of Roberto Soldado as the top Spanish scorer in the league and accounts for 35% of Athletic’s total.

However, the Spanish international’s influence is more important than even that figure suggests. One of the questions puzzling those on the English side of the channel was how a side with such flair and swagger that could turn up to Old Trafford to win more comfortably than the 3-2 scoreline suggested before polishing off the Premier League leaders in similar style in Bilbao could, until last week, be in the bottom half of La Liga?

Llorente may be the simplest answer to that question. Since his return from injury after nearly a month out around the New Year, the 27-year-old has played a part in every Copa del Rey and Europa League game, scoring nine goals in the process and guiding his side to the final and semi-final of those competitions respectively.

Yet, that toll has hampered his participation in La Liga. Llorente has started 23 of Athletic’s 33 league fixtures so far this campaign and made a further five appearances from the bench.

Overall, with 45 points from their 33 games, Bielsa’s men are averaging 1.36 points per game. With Llorente out of the side completely though that figure drops to just one point per game having played no part in draws with Mallorca and Racing Santander and defeats to Valencia and Atletico Madrid.

That average is also the same in matches where Llorente has appeared as a substitute, however, his appearances from the bench has almost always swung the game in Athletic’s favour.

Therefore in the games where he has started, Athletic’s points per game tally jumps to a much healthier 1.52. And if you just include goals from the 28 games Llorente has been involved in, his percentage of the team’s total rises to 40%.

Ironically the reason for this dependency partly lies in Bielsa’s style changes away from those that directly suit Llorente’s natural game. In previous seasons he was still very much a force to be reckoned with, but defences could plot much more easily on how to combat his strengths, as they knew exactly how Athletic would play.

Now, with much more variety in the way they approach the game, it is harder for the opposition to counteract both the brute force and aerial presence of El Rey León and the more technical, pace, skill and passing ability of the likes of Iker Muniain and Ander Herrera.

The statistics illustrate this combination perfectly. Athletic still rely on one of their traditional strengths; goals from set-pieces. Their 17 this season represents the joint third highest in the league, but they have scored the most headed goals as a team with Llorente managing the same feat as an individual for the third season running.

Their 9 headed goals have obviously been helped by the third highest number of crosses in the league, at 23 per game, and their 37% of shots from outside the area is second lowest in the league, behind only Barcelona. That logic continues as Athletic’s 8% of attempts from inside the six-yard box is also the joint highest in the league.

However, there is now also a completely different side to Bilbao. They have the third highest percentage rating for possession (56.4%) behind the big two and play more short passes per game (423) than anyone outside Barcelona and Real Madrid.

Watching them closely in the two spells that Llorente has missed this season, it is obvious that their possession and patience is ideal when teams have to maintain a reasonably high line to try and avoid balls being swung into the box for him to attack, but take away that aerial threat and the opposition can sit very deep, block up all the space and force Athletic to try and play through them.

Bielsa’s vision is to turn Bilbao into a mini-Barcelona and whilst the project is developing nicely, they still don’t quite have the quality to pass their way through the eye of a needle against sides with 10-men defending their penalty area. And that is why, for now at least, their hulking centre forward remains their most valuable asset.