League Focus: Scorers of the Premier League's Most Valuable Goals
When Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane opened the scoring for their respective sides from the spot last weekend, the goals looked likely to prove decisive in the title race. It came to pass that Vardy's penalty would count for nothing as Arsenal came from behind to snatch all three points but while it was Eriksen who ultimately secured the win for Tottenham at the Etihad, Kane's opener was also worth two points to his side.
The Spurs' striker's spot kick brought about a somewhat unbelievable statistic for the season. Despite being the Premier League's second highest scorer (16), Kane's goal on Sunday was his first to directly earned Tottenham a victory in the current campaign. Indeed, the rest of Kane's 15 goals in the league had only managed to improve the Londoners' points tally by one beforehand, albeit a crucial one having opened the scoring in an eventual 1-1 draw against fierce rivals Arsenal.
As a result of such a surprising fact, we've looked at the most valuable goalscorers this season based on the number of points that their teams would be worse off without each players' goalscoring exploits.
With Kane's goals accounting for just three points for Tottenham all season, as many as 41 players are above him in the leaderboard. Among those players are Alexander Tettey, Bakary Sako and teammate Heung Min-Son, each of whom have earned their teams four points despite scoring just twice by comparison. In fact, the South Korean forward has directly contributed to more of Tottenham's points tally than any other teammate, perhaps proving that Pochettino's side's success has been a real collective effort, more so than any other side.
It's far less of a shock that Jamie Vardy's goals have directly earned his side the most points this season. Indeed, the Leicester front man's 19 stirkes have been worth 18 points this season, scoring decisive goals in 7 wins for the Foxes this season and earning his side a share of the spoils on a further 5 occasions. Without the points that Vardy has earned Claudio Ranieri's men would be 11th in the table, rather than at its summit.
The fact that Riyad Mahrez is next on the leaderboard, with his 14 goals worth 16 points, further highlights just how vital the attacking duo have been to Leicester's remarkable success. Nevertheless, there have been telling contributions elsewhere for the club, with Shinji Okazaki earning Leicester 5 points and Robert Huth ensuring another 4, crucially in matches against title rivals Tottenham and Manchester City.
Third in the list is Odion Ighalo, whose goals look certain to prove the difference between survival and relegation for Watford. Indeed, with 14 league strikes this season the Nigerian has earned the Hornets 15 points, which, when taken from the club's overall tally, would leave Quique Sanchez Flores' men second from bottom.
Sunderland fans will hope that Jermain Defoe's efforts this season have the same impact in terms of their battle against the drop and the experienced striker has certainly kept the Black Cats in with a fighting chance. Were it not for the Englishman's 10 league goals this season Sam Allardyce's men would be 9 points worse off and rock bottom of the league, with Diego Costa, Andre Ayew and Marko Arnautovic all earning their respective sides the same commendable tally thus far.
In terms of the 39 players to score 5 or more goals this season, however, it's two unlikely names whose strikes have been most valuable in terms of points per goal. Newcastle's Ayoze Perez and West Brom's Salomon Rondon may have only netted 5 times apiece this season but those efforts have been worth 7 points for their respective sides (1.40 points per goal).
At the opposite end of that spectrum, it's Manchester City's marquee summer signings Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne who prop up the pile. Both players have scored 5 league goals this season, but neither has earned their side a single point as a result of said strikes. The only player between the City pair and Kane's figure of 0.19 points per goal of those to score five or more times is Saints striker Graziano Pelle, who has earned the club just the single point with his 6 entries on the scoresheet.
Of course, every goal has value. Indeed some would argue the second goal in a 2-0 win, or even the opener in a rout to get the ball rolling is decisive. However, in the truest sense of the word there is greater value in those that score in tight encounters to either settle a game in their favour or ensure a stalemate at the very least.
In that regard the trio of Vardy, Mahrez and Ighalo have excelled this season and can be considered the scorers of the most valuable goals. Meanwhile, though Kane’s figures by comparison are in part due to the fact that Tottenham have tended to win by a more considerable margin than the likes of Leicester this season, and one couldn't accuse their star striker of not doing his bit in their title bid, the England international may need to net more decisive goals between now and the end of the season if Pochettino's men are to come out on top.
Who's goals do you think will prove to be decisive in the title race? Let us know in the comments below
Great article Mr. Martin Lawrence, love the insight. I'd also love to see an examination of points per each direct goal contribution (goals + assists). Although Vardy's 19 goals is more than Mahrez's 14 so far, Vardy only has 3 assists to Mahrez's 10; Mahrez has 24 direct goal contributions to Vardy's 22, which explains his top of the EPL Whoscored rating. Similarly, Ozil has 17 assists, the best in Europe and surely influential in getting Arsenal extra points this season, but he doesn't get a mention here at all. Again though, good work Mr. Lawrence, keep it up!
@David99907 Assists can be a dubious statistic though. Alot of assists can be made without the intention of a goal taking place. I.e random long punts & passes out wide where a player make a dribble to score etc. etc. etc.
@morningstar I agree, that's a legitimate point to make, assists can often be accidental. However, I'd also say that goals can be a dubious statistic as well... Own goals and huge deflections are relatively commonplace right? (i.e. ibrahimovic's freekick against Chelsea the other day). Also, tap-ins and penalties are certainly goals, but it can definitely be argued that they're not as indicative of a player's skill or quality as say long shots or mazy dribbles; this is of course why certain people post "Penaldo" as an insult. Of course pulling general and simple statistics like goals or assists will ignore many small details that might add up to a lot, but as tools to discern overall trends, they're great.
@morningstar I agree, that's a legitimate point to make, assists can often be accidental. However, I'd also say that goals can be a dubious statistic as well... Own goals and huge deflections are relatively commonplace right? (i.e. ibrahimovic's freekick against Chelsea the other day). Also, tap-ins and penalties are certainly goals, but it can definitely be argued that they're not as indicative of a player's skill or quality as say long shots or mazy dribbles; this is of course why certain people post "Penaldo" as an insult. Of course pulling general and simple statistics like goals or assists will ignore many small details that might add up to a lot, but as tools to discern overall trends, they're great.
These stats give very different view to top goal scorers, I recall this wasn't the first article which compares player's goals to points he has won. It would be very useful in season review since in the end of the season you can see who's scored a lot but you don't always remember who's made the difference in tight games. It would be also interesting to make the same research for other leagues. I wonder how many goals have Higuain's, Suarez's, Zlatan's etc. goals actually ensured for their teams.