Can Burnley's home comforts ensure long term survival?
It was a throw of the dice by Sean Dyche, but it certainly paid off against Southampton last weekend. Burnley were headed for a home draw with Saints and were arguably second best for much of the encounter. Joey Barton, making his first Premier League appearance since his return to Turf Moor, came off the bench to score a late winner for Burnley to maintain their fine home form. The win over Saints was the club’s eighth from 12 on home turf this season as only Tottenham (29) and Chelsea (27) have earned more home points than Burnley (25) in England’s top tier this term.
Conversely, Burnley have struggled massively on their travels. They have earned the fewest away points in the Premier League this season, with that solitary point coming at Old Trafford in a 0-0 draw with Manchester United. The stalemate with United was a match they would have lost had it not been for an inspired Tom Heaton showing between the sticks. The England international earned a WhoScored rating of 9.34 – only Maarten Stekelenburg (9.82 vs Manchester City) has earned a better rating of goalkeepers in a Premier League match this season – with Heaton’s 11 saves the second highest in a top-flight fixture so far this term.
“We all know our home form is going to be important,” stated Dyche back in October and that much is abundantly clear. They’ve overcome Liverpool and Everton among others at Turf Moor this season and came perilously close to securing a positive result at Arsenal’s expense earlier in the campaign. It’s an approach that mirrors Coventry City’s in the 1999/2000 season. The Sky Blues picked up 37 points at Highfield Road, the sixth best return in the Premier League that campaign, but only Watford (5) earned fewer points on the road than Coventry (7) that term, only to be relegated the following season.
The vast difference in form is certainly not a trend that Burnley will hope continues, but Dyche’s side currently sit 10th in the Premier League after 21 games and are six points better off this time around compared to two years ago. However, between now and the end of the season, Burnley still have to face Chelsea, Tottenham and Manchester United, three teams who will undoubtedly put their fine home form to the test. There’s a clear pattern to the way Burnley play in front of their fans, with Dyche implementing a counter-attacking approach.
Indeed, only West Brom (40.4%) average less possession at home than Burnley (40.8%) in the Premier League this season as the Clarets welcome pressure before springing swift attacks. No team has attempted more counter-attacking chances on home turf than Burnley (5), who in turn are averaging the most long balls per game (80.8). Evidently, Dyche has demanded his players sit deep to soak up pressure before winning the ball and breaking forward. In this instance, then, the deployment of natural wingers in a 4-4-2 formation is a boost for Dyche.
George Boyd and one of Scott Arfield or Johann Berg Gudmundsson largely provide the width for Burnley, but then are willing to carry out their defensive responsibilities to ensure they aren’t overrun out wide. Boyd ranks second for tackles per 90 (3.2) of all Burnley players to make five or more home Premier League appearances this season, while Gudmundsson (2.2) also ranks highly. Arfield may make just 0.9 tackles per 90 at Turf Moor, but fares better in his reading of the game as he makes 1.6 interceptions per 90 at home.
It’s a bonus for Dyche, who boasts reliable wingers willing to carry out the necessary defensive duties, but boast the pace – particularly Boyd – to break forward at speed to highlight a statistically calculated WhoScored strength of ‘counter attacks’. This was notable in the 2-0 win over Liverpool, where Burnley had just 19.6% of possession and three shots but still secured an early season scalp at the Reds’ expense.
Away from home, while they still average 80.7 long balls per game, Burnley are yet to muster a counter-attacking opportunity on their travels. While teams are expected to see less of the ball away from home, Burnley’s average possession actually increases in their away games to 43.2% as they struggle to replicate their home performances on the road. With that, their shots per game drop from 10.8 to 7.7 away from Turf Moor, partly because they see more of the ball, meaning they have fewer chances to deploy their counter-attacking approach.
With just 1.9 shots on target per game away from home compared to 3.9 at Turf Moor, Burnley’s struggles are on the road are likely to continue if Dyche fails to implement a similar approach in both home and away encounters. Of course, home advantage plays a part in their good form at Turf Moor, but in their quest to turn their home into a fortress they are negating their away performances. It is a dangerous game to play in the long run, even if Burnley are 10 points clear of the relegation zone at the time of writing.
