Man City vs Watford: Top 10/1 tip on the FA Cup Final

Today’s FA Cup final between Watford and Manchester City offers the chance for the latter to make history by cleaning up with a domestic treble, and the bookies seem in little doubt that they will do just that.

Watford, after all, have never won a major trophy either in cup of top-flight competition, but there is no doubt the team has made real progress this season. To most, eleventh place wasn’t really a fair reflection of what was a very successful league campaign, and one that certainly this writer didn’t see coming.

Javi Gracia deserves great credit for getting what had previously seemed like a group of players thrown together with relatively little thought playing like a very cohesive team. Indeed, the Hornets were a far more settled side under the Spaniard and lined up in their now customary narrow 4-2-2-2 formation in all but three league games over the campaign.

It’s telling that of those three matches that Gracia tinkered with his tactics, two were against cup final opponents City. Adapting to how Pep Guardiola’s side play is not uncommon after all, so it will be intriguing to see whether the Watford boss does so once more having lost both fixtures with the champions.

Both sides are - for the possible exception of long-term absentee Benjamin Mendy - at full strength, so Gracia must decide whether to go with his usual two-man strike partnership having abandoned the tactic in said previous encounters with City. He will no doubt be wary of how exposed that may leave his full-backs to the frightening wingers of their opponents, particularly given that the five goals Watford conceded in this fixture in the league were all scored by wide players (Sterling x3, Sane and Mahrez).

For that reason, when assessing the any time scorer market, said trio are well worth considering, and with Sterling the only one of the three looking certain to start, he’s priced at evens to score at any time.

The underdogs’ record against top six sides this season is poor when it comes to results, losing 11 out of 12, but they did score in seven of those encounters, including both matches against Manchester City. Six of the matches ended in defeat by just a single goal too, so while Guardiola’s side are worthy strong favourites, today’s Wembley showdown is unlikely to be a rout.

Only one of the last 14 FA Cup finals has been decided by more than a single goal - Arsenal’s 4-0 win over Aston Villa in 2014/15 - so the handicap market is certainly one to explore. Watford are priced at 2.25 with Bet365 on the +1.5 Asian line, meaning a defeat by a solitary goal - as well as draw after 90 minutes or Watford win - would pay out.

However, our top single bet would be on City to win by exactly one goal (3.75) having done so in their last meeting in the capital with Watford, the semi-final at Wembley against Brighton and in three of their last six league matches since that 1-0 victory.

For even greater odds, however, why not combine all of our advice with Bet365’s Bet Builder tool for what could be a huge profit. A bet on under 4 goals in the match, Raheem Sterling to score at any time and Manchester City to win by exactly one goal offers odds of 11.00, or a nice round 10/1 for you fractional fans!