Ibrahimovic's Absence a Blessing in Disguise for AC Milan?

For the past eight seasons, the key to winning a domestic title has been simple- buy Zlatan Ibrahimovic and the league success will automatically follow. Over three different countries and with five different clubs, the Swede’s record is as unique as it is unquantifiable. From Ajax to Juventus, from Inter to Barcelona and back to Italy last season with AC Milan, the question is- exactly what does Ibrahimovic offer that turns a team from title contenders into champions?

The 2010/11 campaign saw Massimio Allegri’s side clinch the title by six points from Inter to end their rival’s dominance of the Italian domestic scene and with the Swede playing a major part up front, his return to Serie A was heralded as one of the pivotal reasons behind their success.

With the Swede now likely to be out of action for around a month, WhoScored decided to analyse Milan’s performances with and without Ibrahimovic in the side last season and the findings suggest, however, that it may not be quite that simple.

Milan Stats - 2010/11
Milan’s title-winning season saw them win 24 of their 38 league games, scoring 65 goals and picking up a total of 82 points; a win ratio of 63% and an average of 1.71 goals per game. Only two teams in Europe’s top five leagues surpassed that number of victories and points accrued- Barcelona, with 30 wins and 96 points, and Real Madrid, with 29 wins and 92 points.

If we break Milan’s stats up, looking at the games with and without Ibra, a surprising picture emerges.

With Ibrahimovic
Due to a couple of three-game suspensions amongst other things, Ibrahimovic played a total of 29 league games last season for Milan. While Allegri’s side lost just 3 of those games, they also drew a total of 9 times, which is 31% of all his appearances. They therefore they won 17 games with Ibra in the side, or 58.6%.

In terms of their threat in front of goal, Milan found the net 48 times, a ratio of 1.66 per game. At the back, they shipped 22 goals, which works out at 0.75 goals conceded per game.

Without Ibrahimovic
Sidelined for 9 Serie A games last season, Ibrahimovic watched on as Milan marched on relentlessly to the title, chased all the way by Leonardo’s Inter. Allegri’s side showed no hint of missing the Swede, though, winning 7 of those fixtures, a ratio of 77.7%. Just 1 draw followed (11%) and a single defeat, suggesting they were, actually, a far more ruthless team without him.

A look at their goals scored and conceded merely backs this up further. Milan scored 17 times, an average of 1.89 goals per game, and shipped just 2 goals, an average of just 0.22.

Going against the common-held conception, then, the stats actually suggest Milan looked a more compact and efficient team without the Swede in their ranks. On average they scored more, conceded less and picked up more points when he didn’t take to the field. On analysis, it was the games without Ibra that helped cement Milan’s position at the top of Serie A last season.

Yet another Plan B?
Pep Guardiola’s need for a “Plan B” prompted Ibra’s move to Barcelona a couple of seasons back. The Barca boss felt he needed a taller, more physical presence in his front line, someone who offered the La Liga champions  an aerial target on the rare occasion their tiki-taka approach failed; a player who allowed the rest of the side more variety in terms of their distribution.

As it turned out though, both on and off the pitch, Ibra was too much of an individual- while there’s no denying his brilliance, his involvement slowed Barca down, making them more predictable and it was to Guardiola’s credit he moved to rectify his big-money mistake by farming the big Swede off to Milan.

A look at Milan’s last two home games offers an indication of the differing style with and without Ibra. Last week’s San Siro clash with Lazio saw the Swede partner Antonio Cassano up front and the pair both scored in the 2-2 draw. Milan had 60% possession, making a total of 550 passes, with 450 short passes.

They had an average pass streak of 5, delivered 23 crosses and managed a mere 2 successful dribbles in the disappointing opener.

The club’s previous home league game- the second last match of the 2010/11 season- saw them play the same 4-1-2-1-2 formation, but with Robinho and Alexandre Pato up top instead. Their possession rate (59%) is almost identical to the Lazio game but they made 600 passes, with 510 short. Furthermore, an average pass streak of 6 shows they are more inclined to keep hold of the ball without a target man to aim for.

Milan made just 6 crosses during the game and managed 19 successful dribbles; compared to the Lazio game (23 and 2), it’s these two stats in particular that indicate the difference in style when Ibrahimovic is involved. There’s a tendency to look for Ibrahimovic, to play to his strengths as opposed to the team’s overall strengths that can come at the detriment of other aspects of Milan’s game. It’s precisely the reason Guardiola bailed on him and who are we to argue with the most successful coach in Barcelona’s illustrious history?