Stats Analysis: Chance Conversion from Set Pieces

The Sam Allardyce’s of the football world have shown us the importance of creating chances at set pieces and, more importantly, making them count. The teams Allardyce built at both Blackburn and Bolton consolidated their positions in the Premier League with their game based largely on attacks from long throw-ins, corners and free kicks. Nowadays, while it is the likes of Stoke who are associated with such a style of play, somewhat surprisingly, there are plenty of other teams from across Europe’s top 5 leagues that are considerably more deadly from set piece situations.

WhoScored.com has decided to take a look at all the teams from these divisions, and compare them in terms of the percentage of the chances they create from set pieces that they convert into goals. That is, the proportion of chances from throw-ins, corners and free-kicks that directly set up a shot, and result in a goal (and an assist for the provider). Such direct football is often thought of as an ugly, English tradition, but our findings show that it is not, in fact, the Premier League teams that are the most effective from set pieces.

Most Effective Sides

When it comes to teams that convert the most of their key passes from set-plays into goals, it is Osasuna that lead the way. The Pamplona-based side have set up 52 chances directly from set pieces in league games this season, and while 13 of the 98 teams in Europe’s top 5 leagues have created more chances, it is Osasuna who have scored the most, with 14. This tally is 3 more than any other side in the top 5 leagues and accounts for their impressive chance conversion rate from set pieces of 26.9%.

Osasuna’s right-winger Alvaro Cejudo often takes his side’s dead balls, though while he has played no small part in that he has picked up 4 assists from 18 chances created from set pieces, he has not had the biggest effect on their impressive conversion rate. Centre-forward Nino has 2 assists from 2 key passes at set pieces and Raul Garcia has 3 from 4. One might argue that the duo should be given more opportunities to take their set pieces.

Just behind Osasuna in the rankings are Serie A leaders AC Milan, with a rate of 26.6%. What is even more impressive about Milan’s statistics, though, is that they have only set up goalscoring opportunities from set pieces on 30 occasions this season – the second fewest in Serie A – and yet they have scored 8 goals as a result – the most in the league. Alberto Aquilani has picked up 3 assists from 6 key passes at set piece situations this season, with Cassano and Ibrahimovic scoring headers from Aquilani’s corners, and Kevin Prince Boateng scoring a screamer from the edge of the area after a corner in the memorable 4-3 comeback against Lecce.

Athletic Bilbao have scored a more than decent 11 goals from 43 chances from set pieces; a rate of 25.6%. Bielsa’s side have been acclaimed for their passing game this season, particularly in twice beating Manchester United in the Europa League, but they lead the charts for headed goals this season, with 16, and their 11 goals set up from set pieces have gone a long way to supplementing the other side of their game.

United’s rivals Manchester City have the fourth best chance conversion rate from dead ball situations, scoring a quarter of the chances they get. Their rate of 25% is the best in the Premier League, having converted 10 of the 40 chances laid on by teammates, and unsurprisingly, it is playmaker David Silva that they have to thank. The Spaniard has found a teammate directly from a set piece on only 8 occasions this season, and yet four of those occasions have resulted in goals. Samir Nasri, meanwhile, has 12 key passes from set pieces, but has only got 1 assist as a result.

Levante (24.1%), Man Utd (23.8%) and Palermo (22.9%) closely follow, but you have to look all the way down to 32nd out of 98 teams to find the team many would have expected to top this list – Stoke City.

Four teams from Europe’s top five leagues (though none from the Premier League) have made more chances from throw-ins, corners or free kicks than Tony Pulis’ side, who have created 63. However, their tally of just 11 goals from those 63 chances leaves them with a conversion rate of 17.5%. Most people immediately think of Stoke when set pieces are mentioned, but in the Premier League alone, their conversion rate is bettered by both Manchester clubs, Norwich and Blackburn. It seems that Stoke go for quantity of delivery into the box, rather than quality.

Least Effective Sides

Mid-table Serie A side Cagliari are bottom of Europe’s top 5 leagues in terms of chance conversion directly from set plays, with a rate of just 2.5%, having scored with just 1 of their 40 goalscoring opportunities from such situations. They are just one point behind Palermo in the table, but while Palermo have created 5 fewer set play opportunities, they have scored 7 more goals from those chances. Cagliari’s poor finishing could cost them a few places in the league standings, and with the relegation zone only 8 points below them, it may be something that they should look to improve on.

Goal-shy and struggling Cesena rank second in this regard, scoring just a solitary goal from 34 set-piece chances, giving them a conversion rate of just 2.9%. With only 16 goals in 28 league games this season and the side looking doomed, it seems that converting chances from dead balls is not their only worry.

Sevilla and Aston Villa are two sides having strikingly similar seasons. Both are generally expected to finish in the top half of their respective leagues every season, yet are currently hovering surprisingly close to the relegation zone. The two have both been involved, for the most part, in low-scoring games this season, struggling in front of goal, as well as conceding fewer than those immediately around them. They have also struggled from set pieces, with both scoring just 2 goals set up from dead balls. Sevilla have converted just 3.9% of their 51 chances created and Villa just 4.1% of 48 chances. Neither side is usually associated with focusing their play on scoring from set pieces, but the stats show that they are in fact concentrating far too much on such an approach. Both sides has been very unsuccessful, and with Villa also conceding the most goals in the Premier League from set pieces, it is clear that the two need to up their game when it comes to set pieces.