League Focus: Monaco Well-placed to Net Ligue 1’s Coveted Third Place

Fans of final day suspense will probably feel let down following the 37th, and penultimate, round of Ligue 1 action. Paris Saint-Germain officially eliminated the minuscule doubts that lingered over their third straight title win by beating Montpellier. Meanwhile, last week’s subjects Evian now know that beating Saint-Etienne, rather than losing to them, as they did, would not have saved them from relegation to Ligue 2, after Reims’ narrow win over Rennes.

Lyon’s 1-1 draw with Bordeaux sealed the runners-up spot, and the second automatic Champions League place, though their goal difference advantage over Monaco meant only a mathematical miracle was going to deny them as things stood at the start of proceedings. Willy Sagnol’s team are assured of 6th place, but must hope PSG beat Auxerre in the Coupe de France final on May 30th, which would confirm Les Girondins welcoming Europa League football to their plush new stadium.

There is life in the old dog yet, though. The third and final Champions League spot is up for grabs after Monaco, Marseille and Saint-Etienne all emerged victorious on Saturday night, and go head-to-head this coming Saturday in another round of fixtures to decide who secures a place in Europe's elite competition.

This year’s Champions League quarter-finalists Monaco - who, the experienced Jérémy Toulalan admitted this week, are wondering what might have been after Juventus’ subsequent progression - are in the driving seat as things stand. It wasn’t easy on Saturday at home to already-relegated Metz, but a 2-0 win leaves Leonardo Jardim’s side in control of their own destiny.

Just as the Principality side’s powers of recovery had been evident in the aftermath of that agonising European exit to Juve, winning the subsequent fixtures against Lens and an improved Toulouse with some comfort, they did so again against Metz. Victory at Marseille last week would not only have sealed a place in the top three, but it would have kept Jardim’s team in the hunt for second. After João Moutinho’s 1st-minute opener, they looked on course for a Champions League return, but instead two late goals for Les Phocéens threw Marcelo Bielsa’s side a lifeline and kept Sainté in the picture.

With victory expected as well as imperative at the Stade Louis II on Saturday, this young Monaco side faced a type of pressure that is very new to them. For much of the season they have been - as ludicrous as it may sound, given the funding offered by major shareholder Dmitry Rybolovlev over the past few years - in the role of underdogs, in light of Radamel Falcao and James Rodríguez’s high-profile exits and after a dire start to life under Jardim. They won just 4 and lost 4 of their opening 9 league games. They also leaked 9 goals in their first 6 matches.

How things have changed since. The loss at the Vélodrome was the first occasion since the defeat at Rennes in November in which Monaco have conceded more than once in a Ligue 1 match. Overall, they have shipped just 8 goals in 22 matches since Rennes.

The problems which have prevented them from making a real title challenge were especially evident to the situation against Metz at the weekend, however. An essentially sit, soak, and break style of team, Monaco have really struggled to make the running at home. They have failed to win 11 of their 19 home games this campaign, though they have only lost 2, and it was easy to fear the worst as a tight first period reached its climax against Albert Cartier’s side.

Then, on the stroke of the interval, Bernardo Silva broke the deadlock. The 20-year-old, who arrived initially on loan from Benfica with little first-team experience, has been outstanding, and clearly has the sang froid to take his side forward. The midfielder’s goal was his 9th from just 24 starts, and he was the game’s star man with a WhoScored rating of 8.92. He has learned how to become more direct, hitting 3 shots (2 on target), and playing 5 key passes alongside his assist for Valère Germain’s clincher. His relationship with countryman Moutinho, who rated 8.28 against Metz, has been mutually beneficial. Moutinho, who made 5 key passes and set up Bernardo’s goal, his 6th assist of the season, has returned this season to the form that made him coveted all over Europe, perhaps buoyed by his return to the Champions League.

That place on the podium is by no means in the bag for Monaco, with a trip to Lorient  - and their horribly weathered artificial surface - last up, while rivals Marseille and Sainté have home ties against Bastia and Guingamp, respectively. Bielsa’s team have clearly been lifted by that stirring comeback against Monaco, and resembled their sizzling selves from the season’s early weeks by overpowering Lille 4-0 on the road. Les Verts’ 2-1 win at Evian was another demonstration of Max Gradel’s quality, with the Ivorian attacker’s brace lifting his tally to 15 goals this season. Sainté have often struggled for goals this campaign, but have now found the answer within.

Goals are particularly important on the final day. Marseille’s goal difference means that if they win against Bastia, Monaco need to do likewise - a point will not be enough. Bielsa’s team, for all their ups and downs, have been great value and are Ligue 1’s second top scorers with 73. André-Pierre Gignac, after striking again in Nord-Pas-de-Calais, now has 23 for the campaign.

Neutral fans, therefore, may have divided loyalties. Marseille have been wonderful viewing for much of the season, but may struggle to get through four playoff games to reach the Champions League group stages after Gignac and André Ayew, who are both out of contract, leave the Vélodrome. One could same the same for Saint Etienne, but perhaps even more so, with coach Christophe Galtier’s future in doubt.

Monaco are hardly the most romantic choice, but give France the best chance of having three sides in the Champions League group stages, and crucially; it's in their hands as the final hurdle approaches.

Who of Monaco, Marseille or Saint-Etienne will finish 3rd in Ligue 1 this season? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below