Belgium vs Brazil - Should Firmino replace underperforming Jesus for the Selecao?

When picturing Brazil at a World Cup you don’t tend to consider their defence straight away, if at all. Superstar attackers like Ronaldinho, Ronaldo, Pele and Kaka spring to mind, to name just a few, and this summer it is Neymar and Philippe Coutinho. Brazil are the iconic team of international football, illustrated by the fact no country has won the World Cup more times (5). Brazil are favourites to lift the Jules Remit trophy once again this summer, but they are yet to dazzle like previous incarnations and have actually excelled in defence more so than they have up front.

Brazil have only conceded one goal in four games at the 2018 World Cup and have kept clean sheets in their last three matches. Remarkably, no team has conceded fewer shots on target than the Selecao (5). They invited pressure in the early stages of their last-16 clash with Mexico but never really looked like conceding.

Brazil have looked uncharacteristically solid at the back this summer and their defensive resolve will be truly tested for the first time on Friday night when they take on the tournament’s best attack. Belgium have scored more goals than any other team at the 2018 World Cup (12) and the outcome of their encounter in Kazan will provide a definitive answer on where Brazil are in their development under Tite.

The Selecao impressively breezed through qualification for the 2018 World Cup under Tite, but the 57-year-old will be judged solely on his performances in Russia. It’s so far so good for Brazil, but Tite has a huge decision to make against Belgium about who leads the line. Gabriel Jesus has started every match so far but has struggled to influence matches. The Manchester City striker hasn’t scored in Brazil’s opening four matches and now has Roberto Firmino breathing down his neck for a spot up front.

Firmino cut short his mini-break after Liverpool’s Champions League final defeat to join up with Brazil before the 2018 World Cup in a bid to win over Tite’s trust, but the 26-year-old has been limited to just 37 minutes of playing time spread over three substitute appearances. Nevertheless, Firmino has scored and attempted only three fewer shots than Jesus, who has more than five hours of playing time on his compatriot.

Only Neymar (48) and Eden Hazard (32) have managed more touches in the opposition penalty area than Jesus (28) at the 2018 World Cup but he hasn’t been an effective frontman for Brazil. He did well to create space for Paulinho to open to scoring against Serbia in their final group game, but it’s not enough and his position should be seriously under threat. Awarded the iconic No.9 shirt before the tournament, Jesus has perhaps benefited from a lack of criticism due to the focus on Neymar.

Team news and odds in our match preview

The world’s most expensive player of all-time is yet to hit top form this summer, which is perhaps understandable given he was out for three months in the build up to the tournmament. The 26-year-old has shown patches of brilliance but is yet to string together a complete performance, too focused on his individual display than the collective. Perhaps Neymar’s self-indulgence, which was evident at times at PSG last season, is part of the reason why Jesus has struggled this summer.

Neymar is averaging more touches than any other Brazil player (91.5) at the 2018 World Cup but a large proportion of those are happening on the left touchline closer to the halfway line. In comparison to his final season at Barcelona (2016/17), where he was at his decisive best, he averaged marginally fewer touches per league game (86.6), but the large majority of those were high up the pitch towards the corner of the opposition penalty area.

If Neymar and Coutinho are occupying the same space, it’s little wonder Jesus has struggled to leave his mark on this tournament and if Neymar doesn’t spend more of his time closer to the opponents goal it’s hard to see anything changing for Jesus up front. It’s for that reason why Firmino would arguably be a better fit for Brazil. Not only is Firmino better at holding up play than Jesus, but he has demonstrated his phenomenal work rate for Liverpool in recent seasons.

In fact, only Kevin De Bruyne (34) won possession in the attacking third more times than Firmino (29) in the Premier League last season and his strength and constant hounding of opponents would arguably be more effective against a Belgium side that will line up with three strong centre-backs. Jesus has good movement and acceleration but will have to play at his best to have any joy against Toby Alderweireld, Jan Vertonghen and Vincent Kompany.