As Alan Pardew reflected even before Newcastle United’s defeat to Everton on Monday, this has already been a very strange season for the club. They were excellent in beating Aston Villa and, had they beaten Hull City a week ago on Saturday, they would have gone third in the table. As it is, they lost both games 3-2 and stand just two places above the relegation zone – for all that matters at this stage of the season.
Which is the true Newcastle? The one that picked off Villa, or the one that shipped goals so readily against Manchester City? Pardew described the inconsistency as “disturbing” and that is certainly true of the defence. In the first half against Everton, as against City and at times against Hull, they were dismal at the back. Romelu Lukaku’s second goal in particular was the result of defensive play that would have shamed a Sunday league pub side. Yet they kept clean sheets against Fulham and West Ham and looked solid enough against Villa.
There has been consistency at the other end of the pitch, although it is hardly likely to be of cheer to Pardew. Essentially, if Hatem Ben Arfa plays well, Newcastle have a chance; if not, they are woefully lacking in creativity. Against Everton, he managed a WhoScored rating of just 5.8 before being taken off at half-time. As Newcastle showed with their slightly freakish second-half fightback, if the French winger isn’t playing well, you’re better off not having him on the pitch.
The game at Goodison was Ben Arfa’s 41st start for Newcastle since joining in 2011. Newcastle have won none of the games in which he produced his 13 weakest performances according to WhoScored’s ratings, losing 9. Up to a point that’s natural, of course: players play worse when their team loses.
Nonetheless, the correlation between Ben Arfa’s performances and Newcastle’s results is striking. On five occasions, Ben Arfa has registered a WhoScored rating of 8 or above. Newcastle have won 4 of those, registering 9 goals of which Ben Arfa scored 4 and got the assists for 2. The good news for Ben Arfa is that two of those games came this season - against Fulham when he scored the only goal and was responsible for 3 key passes, and against Villa when he scored the opener and hit the shot from which Yoan Gouffran scored the winner.
The bad news for Newcastle is that - until the second half against Everton – they have needed Ben Arfa on the pitch to offer even a glimmer of creativity. His dribbling is hugely important to Newcastle – as it has been since he arrived. No player to have played in each of the last three Premier League seasons has completed more dribbles per game than his 2.93. This season, he is averaging 3.3 per game – fourth in the Premier League behind Andros Townsend, Ross Barclay and Mousa Dembélé. Moussa Sissoko is not far behind, with 3.2, but after that the next highest is Loic Remy with 1.3 per game.
Dribbling is not essential to attacking play, but given Newcastle’s functional style, it is vital to them in providing a dash of unpredictability. Yet that style seems to be changing. Last season, no side hit more long balls per game than Newcastle – 69; this season they average just 53, the second fewest in the league. Even allowing for Pardew’s claim that Newcastle are trying to take the initiative more in games, trying to be more attacking, the change seems remarkable.
It might, though, explain both Newcastle’s inconsistency and why Ben Arfa has produced two of his best performances for the club already this season. Useful as his pace and trickery are in developing knockdowns and loose balls, not just in terms of what he creates but also the space he makes and the free-kicks he wins – he has been fouled 7 times this season – but his natural game suits a slower, more patient approach.
The question for Newcastle now is twofold. Firstly, is their defence good enough to cope with the more thoughtful style? And secondly, can Gouffran and Sissoko become effective enough that Newcastle are not constantly reliant for creativity on Ben Arfa, becoming predictable given the regularity with which they look to him for unpredictability?
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