Why Crystal Palace were wrong to hastily sack Patrick Vieira
An 11-game winless run, the longest in the Premier League this season, resulted in Patrick Vieira's dismissal as Crystal Palace boss on Friday morning. The dire run of form means the Eagles are looking nervously over their shoulder as we head into the first international break of the year.
Just three points separate Palace and the relegation zone as the south London side seek to beat the drop. They are one of only two teams in the top four tiers of English football, along with League One side Forest Green, yet to win a league match in 2023. On the face of it, Vieira's sacking is the logical decision for a Palace side desperate to retain their Premier League status.
However, were Palace too hasty to relieve Vieira of his duties at Selhurst Park? Yes, an 11-game winless run is relegation form, and were they to drop down into the Championship, then the dire showings in 2023 will be the reason why. Not only have they failed to pick up maximum points in a league match since a 2-0 win at Bournemouth on New Year's Eve, but this streak significantly impacts confidence.
That being said, Palace, despite the results, haven't been that bad in recent months. A 4-0 home defeat to Tottenham in January kicked off their run, yet since then; five defeats and five draws don't make for bad reading. Crucially is since that loss to Spurs, their five defeats have been by the single goal. Palace aren't getting torn to shreds by opponents, but remain in games up until full time. A little luck going their way, and things could have been so different for Vieira.
Commendably still, they have picked up results against sides chasing a top-four finish. Of the five draws in their last 11 games, three have come with Manchester United at Selhurst Park, Newcastle and Liverpool, while Palace have also taken points off high-flying pair Brentford and Brighton. They would have beaten the Bees in west London were it not for a late, late Vitaly Janelt equaliser.
Their meeting with Arsenal on Sunday also ends a tough run of games for Vieira's side. Indeed, since the turn of the year, they have faced Manchester United twice, rivals Brighton twice, Tottenham, Liverpool, Brentford, Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester City. For any team, this is an incredibly tough run of games, and even for a Palace side down on their luck, to have only lost their five matches by the one goal, two of which were penalties and one an own goal, means the decision to sack Vieira is a tough one.
While Palace, despite their solid showings at the Emirates in recent years, are expected to lose to an Arsenal side reeling from their Europa League exit this weekend, the games after the international break are wholly more important for the Eagles. At the time of writing, Palace will take on five of the current bottom six in their seven league matches between now and the end of April.
Perhaps the need for "new-manager bounce" is what swayed the Palace boards' decision to sack Vieira. To do so before the international break will give the new man at the Selhurst Park helm the chance to familiarise himself with the players at his disposal ahead of a crunch run of games.
Yet even with the poor form, Palace remain difficult to break down. They have conceded just 34 goals this season, the eighth fewest in the Premier League, a return better than Manchester United (35) and Tottenham (37), and it's the lack of goals that are the primary issue. 21 goals scored is the fourth lowest return in England's top tier, while a conversion rate of just 7.5% is the fifth worst.
In addition, Palace are averaging just 7.5 key passes per game, again the fifth lowest, so they are hardly creating chances with any great regularity, but with a sound defensive record, they are continuing to compete with opponents.
Nevertheless, it is now impossible to say how Palace would have fared had they stuck with Vieira. Perhaps the rot had really set in, and that ultimately contributed towards the Frenchman's dismissal, but they now need to get their next appointment right if they are to beat the drop. Everton and Wolves have proven this is possible, but Southampton and Leeds are struggling following managerial upheaval.
Ultimately, it could prove the decision to sack Vieira on the back of their midweek derby defeat to Brighton was the right one, especially if they start to pull away from danger, but to dismiss the former Nice man at this stage of the season is a risk, and one that Palace can ill-afford to get wrong.
