Guido Carrillo: The man to fire Southampton to safety

We run the numbers on Southampton recruit Guido Carrillo to assess whether their new signing can remedy the longstanding striking problems at the club.

The South coast club had the worst conversion rate in the entire division under Claude Puel last season (7.1%), and it’s fair to say Mauricio Pellegrino hasn’t had a significant impact in that regard. A conversion rate of 7.9% thus far is an improvement, but with nine of England’s top-flight’s top ten boasting a rate over 10% it’s clear that they are still some way off where they would like to be.

In Carrillo, Saints have acquired their very own baby-faced assassin, who will hope for more playing time than the man that adorned that nickname in the Premier League some years ago.

That said, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s reputation as a super sub is one that the 26-year-old has developed over the last two seasons at Monaco, scoring more times from the bench than any other player in Ligue 1 in that time (6).

The similarities don’t end there either, with the Argentine finding the net with impressive frequency when he does get on the field. Of players to reach double figures in the French top tier since the start of Monaco’s title winning 2016/17 campaign, only Edinson Cavani, Alexandre Lacazette and Neymar have taken fewer minutes to score (91.1). In that time he’s netted with one of every three attempts at goal.

However, in terms of style of play, Carrillo occupies a much taller frame and as such carries an impressive threat in the air, which is something Southampton have lacked since the sale of Graziano Pelle. An average of 6.9 aerial duels won per 90 minutes is enough to rank fourth of players to make ten or more appearances in France this season.

In addition, all four of his league goals this season have come with his head, and ten of the 15 he has scored in total in Ligue 1, meaning he will offer a very different option to Pellegrino than Manolo Gabbiadini or Shane Long. Moreover, the new arrival has bagged as many league goals as the aforementioned pair combined this season, from 1545 minutes fewer.

Following draws against Manchester United and Tottenham in the past month, there’s certainly a sense that Saints are a far better side than their league position suggests. A run of 11 matches without a win has seen them drop into the bottom three after all, scoring just 11 goals in that time.

In Carrillo, however, they have signed a player that needs far fewer chances to score than their current strikers, and one capable of firing the club to the safety of mid-table if he can hit the ground running.