Match Focus: Derby & QPR Face Off in Football's Most Valuable Match

There are two big games this Saturday. In the evening over 300 million people across the world will be tuned in to watch Real Madrid play Atlético in the Champions League final. It will lead the news agenda and dominate online discussion, but a few hours earlier in London, Derby County face QPR in the richest game in football.

From TV revenue to parachute payments via actual prize money, the Championship play-off final is worth £120m. The Champions League going on past prize dividends – Chelsea earned £47m in 2012 – is worth less than half of that.

One Sunday newspaper billed the game at Wembley, cheaply, as the Wheeler Dealer versus the Wally with the Brolly, but this fixture is so much more than that. Try downplaying this game to the West Ham fans who witnessed Ricardo Vaz Te’s late winner two years ago or Crystal Palace supports who saw Kevin Phillips’s extra-time penalty last season.

It has taken Steve McClaren’s Derby and Harry Redknapp’s QPR 48 games to reach this point and for one side, a season of herculean effort will amount to nothing. That Derby finished five points clear of QPR is irrelevant. In their two league meetings, the home side won by a goal – 2-1 at Loftus Road, 1-0 at Pride Park – but that too matters for little. 

Derby have the form with seven wins and a draw from their past eight games, while QPR have not won consecutive matches since March. Sure, they will be familiar with each others’ strengths and weaknesses and past games will be referenced in the dressing room but the Wembley factor must not be underestimated.

On that basis, QPR have more experienced performers but nobody can be sure exactly how Derby’s younger players will react to the pressure. They could be overwhelmed or relish their day at the FA's headquarters.

The midfield battle promises to be fascinating. The teams had the highest pass completion rates and ranked in the top three for possession over the course of the season, but if Derby are to start next season in the Premier League then they need Will Hughes and Craig Bryson to settle into their stride early on.

Hughes has courted the attention of several Premier League clubs and has the potential to be an international hit in years to come but has a tendency to fade in and out of bigger games: see the FA Cup game against Chelsea, for example.

Bryson has had a magnificent campaign with an average rating of 7.28 earning him a place in the WhoScored team of the season alongside his opposite number on Saturday, Joey Barton, who has an average rating of 7.48. Whoever wins that battle will likely finish on the winning side but the key lies in how much decent ball they get to the striker in front of them.

Much, then, will rest on the influence of Charlie Austin. Since returning from injury, excepting a couple of substitute appearances to scrape the rust off, he has scored five in six starts.

It is no coincidence that when his shoulder injury ruled him out in late January QPR failed to win in their next five games, suffering defeat on three occasions. Austin will reach 20 for the campaign with a goal on Saturday but, crucially, Rangers’ next highest scorer is Ravel Morrison, who only joined the club in late February, with six.

Derby, on the other hand, have been far more prolific, ending the league with 24 more goals than QPR. Chris Martin’s 22 (seven of which have come in his past nine appearances) have been vital but Bryson has 16 from midfield. 

Defensively, QPR should have the upper hand but following their remarkable run of eight straight clean sheets from August to early October, they managed only nine more. Barton is their highest-rated player, followed by four defenders, but after Austin, Richard Dunne and Clint Hill have exerted most influence.

It must not be ignored that this is a squad which should have achieved automatic promotion and many of their internationals have not hit the standard expected of them, but this is the chance to put their disappointing performances to one side.

Plenty has been made of QPR’s finances and wages this season but Derby may edge them in the most prosperous 90 minutes of all. 

Who do you think will win promotion to the Premier League on Saturday? Let us know in the comments below