Top Match Tips: The smart money on this week's biggest games

The main stories across Europe this weekend all revolve around the fight for first place in each of Europe's top leagues. There are teams looking to protect their lead, while others are desperately looking to rediscover what it feels like to be back at the top of the table.

LYON VS PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN – Lyon First Half @3.75

Paris Saint-Germain endured a very demanding Champions League game in London against Arsenal in midweek and they could still be without Angel Di Maria and Javier Pastore for the trip to Lyon.

Bruno Genesio’s side are only one place behind PSG, but they are seven points adrift of the reigning Ligue 1 champions coming Sunday’s big clash. Lyon have been leading at half time in five of their six home league matches and even if they do not see out this game with a win, backing them to enter the interval in front seems like a bet worth pursuing. Bet365 price this market up at an attractive @3.75

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SEVILLA VS VALENCIA – Draw @3.75

The impact of Cesare Prandelli arrival as Valencia manager has already been reduced to nothing. Los Che are without a win in their last four and are back in survival mood when they travel to Sevilla on Saturday.

Sevilla are favourites on paper but it remains to be seen how they will react from Champions League disappointment in midweek. They stole an early lead against Juventus only to be reduced to 10 men before half time before Jorge Sampaoli’s side unravelled to a 3-1 defeat. It would have been a crushing blow, particularly as Sampaoli was rightly foaming at the decisions made by referee Mark Clattenburg on the night, which ended in the Sevilla manager being sent to the stands.

The WhoScored Match Forecast predicts Sevilla will get points from coming from behind, so it is imperative Valencia start well and take the lead if they are to come away with at least a valuable point from the Sanchez Pizjuan.

CHELSEA v TOTTENHAM - Both Teams to Score - No @2.05

Defeats to Arsenal and Liverpool at the start of the season appeared to suggest Chelsea had another long season ahead. However, fast forward six league games and Chelsea are top of the Premier League and Antonio Conte has worked his magic once more. Chelsea have won each of their last six league games at an aggregate scoreline of 17-0 and are now considered title favourites. 

Tottenham, meanwhile, are arguably in one of their worst moments of Mauricio Pochettino’s tenure. Without Erik Lamela, who is expected to miss out again this weekend, Spurs have completely lost their cutting edge, even with the return of Harry Kane. They travel to Stamford Bridge, a stadium they haven’t won in the league for 26 years, having just been dumped out of the Champions League. They will make the trip across London without a suspended Danny Rose and an injured Toby Alderweireld, just to make matters worse for Pochettino’s side.

Nevertheless, Tottenham still have the best defensive record in the league (8). Unfortunately for them, Chelsea have only conceded one goal more. While Chelsea can field their best defence, Diego Costa – the league’s top scorer – will be chomping at the bit to get at Kevin Wimmer. The WhoScored Match Forecast indicates that Chelsea are the only side to create goalscoring chances, so look odds of 2.05 from Bet365 on only one side scoring in this fixture.

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BAYERN MUNICH VS BAYER LEVERKUSEN – Bayern First Half/ Bayern Second Half @1.80

Bayern Munich haven’t lost successive matches since May 2015 when a run of three straight defeats ruined Pep Guardiola’s chances of winning the Champions League with the German giants.

Their defeat to Borussia Dortmund last weekend saw a new Bundesliga leader, but it was not Thomas Tuchel’s side. Instead, newly promoted RB Leipzig leapfrogged the Hollywood club into first spot and Carlo Ancelotti’s side will now have them in their sights, particularly after they slipped to a shock 3-2 defeat to Russian side FC Rostov in midweek.

Leverkusen have lost three of their five away league matches and have suffered defeat in five of their last six matches away to Bayern. There are three scoring situations in the WhoScored Match Forecast, all which back Bayern. Poor Leverkusen…

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INTER VS FIORENTINA – Draw @3.40

Inter’s embarrassing elimination from the Europa League on Thursday didn’t come as a great shock as their current situation is just that. You cannot pin their early exit on new manager Stefano Pioli but the manner in which they threw away a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2 to Hapoel Beer Sheva was unacceptable.

Fiorentina were also left feeling sorry for themselves after losing by the same scoreline in the Europa League in midweek, but they are still three points clear at the top of Group J and should qualify for the knockout stage. The Viola rarely play above themselves but never slip below their usual standards. They lack the ability to accelerate the tempo of matches, although Federico Bernardeschi and Josip Ilicic can play between the lines where Inter suffer most.

However, they have Davide Astori at the back and he is vulnerable in 1v1 situations, so Inter should look to isolate him with Mauro Icardi. The Inter captain has scored 50% of Inter’s total league goals (10/20) and their reliance on him is dangerous.

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