May is always a month to look forward to for the British public. The days are longer, the evenings brighter and the weather warmer with summer just around the corner. For teams at the wrong end of the Premier League table, however, May can be a month of despair in a battle to secure top-flight safety. As we near gameweek 36, two teams can be relegated this weekend, with Burnley and QPR - the teams placed 20th and 19th, respectively - hoping they can pick up the results needed to give them a fighting chance of staying up.
Five teams above them - Sunderland, Hull, Leicester, Newcastle and Aston Villa - each stand a chance of playing Championship football next season. Two points separate the teams between 18th and 14th place in England’s top tier and it’s likely that the final relegation spot will be decided on the last day of the campaign. For Burnley and QPR, however, it appears as though the curtains will come down on their season this weekend.
The rock bottom Clarets had given themselves a fighting chance with a victory over Manchester City back in March, the win over the former champions was supposed to be the catalyst for their revival. However, since George Boyd’s winning goal against the Citizens, Burnley have gone 569 minutes without netting and their 6-game goalless run is currently the longest streak of its kind in Europe’s top 5 leagues. Sean Dyche’s side need to rediscover their goalscoring touch at the KC Stadium on Saturday.
QPR can join Burnley in the Championship if they fail to get the better of City on Sunday and results go against them. A daunting trip to the Etihad Stadium is not what manager Chris Ramsey will have fancied and given they have scored just 1 goal in their last 3 games, their task becomes that much more mountainous this weekend. Come the end of play on Sunday, both Burnley and QPR could well have become the first two relegated teams from the Premier League this season, though the battle as to who will join them is far more enthralling.
In regards to recent form, Newcastle should be looking nervously over their shoulder. The Magpies’ current 8-game losing streak is the longest of its kind in Europe’s top 5 leagues. "I still think I’m the best coach in the Premier League," Newcastle boss John Carver stated on Thursday but the team’s performances under the 50-year-old suggest otherwise. Had the Premier League started on January 1st - when Carver took over - Newcastle would prop up the table with just 9 points from 16 games.
Such form has dragged them right into the relegation battle, even though they had seemed safe earlier this year. Newcastle’s WhoScored rating (6.85) ranks among the bottom three teams in England’s top tier this term, with their disastrous downturn in form leaving them just 2 points above the relegation zone with 3 games to go. Fortunately the Magpies, of the five teams striving to stay up, have the easiest run in according to their opponents’ ratings.
For example, Newcastle welcome West Brom and West Ham to St James' Park before the season's end, so we take into account their respective away ratings - coupled with QPR's home rating this campaign - to come to an average, with the WhoScored rating of their remaining fixtures amounting to a 6.99. Carver’s side may be seriously struggling, but they have a favourable run-in and that could hand them the chance to pick up an crucial 3 points.
The same cannot be said of fierce rivals Sunderland, who currently occupy 18th place. The Black Cats may hold a game in hand over those around them, but have to travel to Everton, Arsenal and Chelsea before the campaign comes to a head. Factor in a crucial home tie with fellow relegation candidates Leicester, and the average rating of their opponents between now and the end of the season is 7.22. Like Newcastle, Sunderland too are the not-so-proud owners of one of the worst WhoScored ratings (6.85) in the Premier League this term.
Conceding goals has been a problem for the Black Cats this season, but it’s their poor performances in attack that has hindered their chances of remaining a Premier League team. They are averaging fewer shots per game (10.6) than every other team, while only Burnley (26) have netted fewer goals than Dick Advocaat’s side (28) this campaign. A 2-1 win over Southampton at the weekend gave them a much-needed confidence boost, but the run-in does not favour Sunderland given their woes in front of goal.
Aston Villa have bagged just 1 goal more than Sunderland this season, but come into the final stretch on the back of a good run of form. The Villans have lost just 1 of their last 4 league games and while they boast the worst WhoScored rating in the Premier League this season (6.84), they are fortunate enough to have one of the most in-form frontmen in their ranks at such a key stage of the campaign. Christian Benteke has been lethal for Villa of late, with the powerful Belgian rediscovering his goalscoring touch under Tim Sherwood.
Since Sherwood took charge of Villa, only Lionel Messi (17), Cristiano Ronaldo (14), Luis Suarez (13) and Luca Toni (11) have bagged more goals than Benteke (10) in Europe’s top 5 leagues. The Belgian’s WhoScored rating in that period (8.08) suggests he is a striker bang in form at just the right time. The age old adage ‘the best defence is a good offence’ is one that Sherwood clearly abides by given Villa’s leaky backline, with Benteke performing the duties expected of him to an exceptional standard. Sherwood will hope the Belgium international can maintain his excellent performances of late to help consolidate their place in England’s top tier.
While Newcastle’s recent form has been terrible, Leicester’s has been quite the opposite. A recent surge has seen the Foxes claw their way out of the bottom three. 5 of their 9 league wins this season have come in their last 6 league games, while the average rating of their upcoming opponents (6.85) is the lowest of the five teams around them. Nigel Pearson’s side meet both Sunderland and QPR between now and May 24th, with the two fixtures expected to be decisive in whether the Foxes are a Premier League team next season.
Leicester have made a habit of starting games quickly in recent weeks and it’s perhaps no surprise to see that only Arsenal (20.3) are averaging more interceptions per game in England’s top tier this season than the Foxes (19) and that means they can spring swift attacks in order to catch the opposition unawares.
Making up the last of the contenders is Hull City, who can relegate Burnley this weekend with a point. The Tigers’ top-flight future looked bleak following a 2-0 defeat at Southampton last month, but back-to-back wins over Crystal Palace and Liverpool lifted them out of the bottom three and put them one point above the relegation zone. The January acquisition of Dame N’Doye rejuvenated their laborious attack and they will be confident of finding the back of the net against an underwhelming Clarets side this weekend to kickstart their survival bid.
Only Sunderland and QPR (both 15.9) are conceding more shots per game in the Premier League this season than Burnley (15.5) and Hull can exploit the Clarets’ lack of defensive solidity to improve their chances of staying up with a victory here, though meetings with Spurs and Manchester United - a team Hull boss Steve Bruce has never beaten in his managerial career - are a concern before the 2014/15 season reaches it climax.
The battle for the remaining spot looks set to go to the wire. The five teams occupying 14th to 18th in the Premier League all have a realistic chance of being relegated this season, in what is expected to be an extremely exciting end to the campaign at the wrong end of the table.
Can Burnley pull off a miracle escape? Will Newcastle's poor form cost them a place in the Premier League? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below
To answer your question, no and no. For Newcastle, well, I kind of want to see John Carver's antics next season, provided he stays on as manager.