For the time being at least, Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United must act like fifth place will not be enough for Champions League qualification.
With the tournament set to expand to 36 teams next season, there is a good chance that England will be one of two countries granted an additional spot. It will ultimately come down to how well Premier League clubs perform in continental competition this season.
For now it is Villa who occupy the final guaranteed qualification berth. They hold a five-point advantage over Tottenham, who have played a game fewer. The two teams will go head-to-head on Sunday in a game that could determine which of the pair are favourites for fourth.
Both sides were victorious last time out, as Villa beat Luton Town 3-2 and Tottenham defeated Crystal Palace 3-1.
Spurs were worthy winners in the end, but it took them a long time to break down Palace’s deep defence. It is a shortcoming that has been present in many of their recent displays. Unless Ange Postecoglou is able to address it, Tottenham could be at a disadvantage in the race for Champions League football.
Despite some patchy performances of late, Spurs are ahead of schedule under Postecoglou.
Last summer, the straight-talking Australian inherited a team that had just finished eighth in the Premier League. The bond between supporters and the team had been substantially weakened over the previous four years.
Postecoglou’s three immediate permanent predecessors - Nuno Espirito Santo, Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte - all employed a style of play that was not in keeping with the club’s traditions. During the last few months of Conte’s tenure, fans called for the long-serving chairman Daniel Levy to step down on a weekly basis.
Tottenham then sold Harry Kane, their greatest ever player, on the eve of the new season. In light of all that, a top-seven finish would have been seen as a respectable achievement in Postecoglou’s maiden campaign at the helm.
Only Liverpool (10) have scored more goals than Tottenham (8) in second-half injury time in the Premier League this season. ⌛️ pic.twitter.com/ymW1LVCWZe
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) March 4, 2024
The former Celtic head coach has therefore done an excellent job to have Spurs where they are right now. That he has done so while promoting an attractive, attack-minded style of play earns Postecoglou even more credit. Tottenham’s possession is up from 49.8% last season to 61% this. They are also taking more shots per game - 15.7 compared to 13.6 in 2022/23 - while their xG per shot has increased from 0.11 to 0.12, a marginal rise despite Kane's sale.
At times in recent weeks, however, Tottenham’s results have been better than their performances. The ability to pick up wins while not being at your best has long been heralded as a positive sign. But there is clearly work for Postecoglou to do when it comes to facing a particular type of opponent: namely one that defends in a low block and attacks on the counter.
The Palace game was only the latest example of Spurs struggling to create chances against a side that was content to sit back and pack men behind the ball.
Timo Werner spurned a one-on-one opening in the first half, but that was one of the few opportunities Tottenham fashioned until the same player equalised in the 77th minute, a goal which itself relied heavily on a mistake by Joachim Andersen.
This is partly a matter of personnel. Shutting down James Maddison goes a long way to blunting Tottenham’s invention. Only Bruno Fernandes, Pascal Gross and Martin Odegaard are averaging more key passes per game than Maddison (2.6), but Tottenham’s opponents are aware of their reliance on him for creativity.
The former Leicester City man is willing to put the ball at risk, but some of his teammates do not share that quality, which results in the tempo slowing. Tottenham also lack a top-class dribbler who excels in one-versus-one battles on the flanks, another common way to prise open backlines and draw defenders out of position.
Other Premier League teams have cottoned on to Spurs’ use of full-backs who move into midfield. In many cases they have actually welcomed this, since it often leads to play becoming congested in central areas. This is especially problematic in Tottenham’s case because the likes of Werner and Dejan Kulusevski tend to take up relatively narrow positions too.
Postecoglou grew accustomed to facing deep defences during his time at Celtic, so this is not a new puzzle for him to solve. We should also remember that he is less than a year into his Tottenham tenure and, on the whole, there have been many more positives than negatives up to now.
But even in victory over Crystal Palace on Saturday, Tottenham showed they are far from the finished article. If they are to take the next step, Spurs must get better at breaking down low blocks.
