Are Chelsea’s signings actually showing signs of improvement?
For much of the last two decades or so, Chelsea have been the club that lived up to the old cliche of football being a results business more than any other.
Under Roman Abramovich, managers were thrown out the door regardless of any recent success when their former owner sensed that things had started to turn. It shouldn’t have worked according to conventional wisdom. Football is supposed to be a sport where clubs are rewarded for patience and stability. Look at Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United. Look at Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola. Chelsea broke the mould. Other clubs were trigger happy when it came to regularly clearing the dugout of course but not with the same sort of consistent success that the Blues enjoyed while firing at will.
Over the course of Abramovich’s 19-year reign in west London, Chelsea only failed to pick up a trophy of some kind in six of those seasons. They found a way to win, regardless. Judging by their performance in the Carabao Cup final last month, despite the Blues dominating a depleted Liverpool side for much of the game, Mauricio Pochettino’s side instead looked like they’d found a way to lose.
Todd Boehly led the takeover that bought Abramovich out in 2022. He too has been quick to move managers on, parting ways with Thomas Tuchel to replace him with Graham Potter who was soon fired to make way for caretaker Frank Lampard. Pochettino arrived at Stamford Bridge in the summer. The American has been even more active in the transfer market, overseeing the purchase of 38 players and counting. Pochettino has already told reporters that he may need the club to make even more signings to get his side in the right shape.
A charitable reading of what Boehly is trying to do is to say that he is playing the long game, although his critics will suggest he never needed to. In 2021, Tuchel won the Champions League with Chelsea and seemed all-set for a long stay at the club to build on that success. A year later he was gone after falling out with the new ownership. For Boehly’s detractors, all this meddling has been unnecessary. The team’s competitiveness has been brought down several levels through a series of unforced blunders and self-inflicted wounds.
If Boehly’s Chelsea can no longer promise decisiveness in the hunt for trophies, the backup offer to supporters is one of delayed gratification. Jam tomorrow, jam yesterday but, for now at least, a shortage of jam today. To this end he has bet big on young talent, offering them unusual, multi-year contracts, in the hope that they soon realise their potential so that his interference comes to be seen as a set of far-sighted masterstrokes in the years to come.
What if this plan can come to fruition to vindicate those who have bought into the vision and have the stomach to wait and see what emerges from the group of players he’s assembled?
Of Boehly’s 38 signings since the summer of 2022, 18 have played some part in Pochettino’s team this season. To find the individuals with the biggest upsides compared to their current performance level for Chelsea, their WhoScored rating for the current Premier League campaign was compared against their form in previous years, either at Chelsea or at their previous clubs.
Unsurprisingly, Cole Palmer has been the stand-out performer for the Blues this season. His average rating in the league of 7.17 is a 12.29% improvement on how his performances for Manchester City in the Premier League were rated across the 2021/22 and 2022/23 campaigns. At the other end of the spectrum is Christopher Nkunku. The French forward has managed a rating of just 6.43 - a 14.21% drop in his level for RB Leipzig in the German Bundesliga. Of course, no one needs to be told that the 26-year-old should come good in a Chelsea shirt once he is settled and clear of the injury issues that disrupted his introduction to the team.
It’s a similar tale with Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo who are performing at levels 5.02% and 3.93% lower than their pre-Chelsea ratings, respectively. They may always struggle to live up to the expectations set out by the enormous transfer fees Boehly paid for them - variables that were never under their control, as was the case with Paul Pogba at Manchester United - but they too are probably going to get better and better based on how they’ve played prior to joining the Blues. They’ve already shown enough to see the obvious talent there.
The more interesting cases to consider lie elsewhere in the squad.
The Frenchman was already a known quantity to Football Manager players when he arrived at Chelsea having been a must-have youngster to sign up on the game to bolster the defensive ranks for years to come.
He is joint-third in the Premier League this season for key passes per 90 minutes (0.5) of centre-backs who have played at least five games and within the top 10 for total tackles made with 2.7 per 90. Badiashile is a good athlete, busy in his defensive work and full of potential, but the rough edges he needs to smooth down are also clear.
The 22-year-old is the second-worst centre-back in the league for being dispossessed, losing the ball to an opponent once every other game if you slice his performance per 90 minutes. Sort that out, with the assistance of playing in a more consistent back line in an improving side, and Badiashile could be a brilliant piece of business for Boehly. A centre-back with the age and ceiling to be a stalwart at the back for a decade or more, all going well.
England under-21 international Noni Madueke arrived at Chelsea from PSV Eindhoven last year after deciding to continue his youth career in the Netherlands 2018 after spells with Crystal Palace and Tottenham Hotspur. Back playing football in his home city, the 22-year-old has much to do if he is to grow into the role of owning the right wing at Stamford Bridge, but the signs are there that he can become a special player for the Blues in time.
He is outperforming former Boehly target Michael Olise (3.2) for successful dribbles per 90 minutes (3.4) in the Premier League this season of right wingers who have played at least 10 games, both a distant second to West Ham’s maverick creator Mohammed Kudus (4.1). Meanwhile, only Bukayo Saka, Mohamed Salah and Olise have played more key passes (2.3) per 90 from his position, and Madueke hasn’t only been getting to work trying to set up his teammates with chances.
He has taken 1.9 shots per 90 inside the penalty area, equal to Phil Foden, and just behind Saka (2.1) with Alejandro Garnacho (2.2), Salah (2.4) and Olise (2.7) leading the way from the right wing. Madueke hasn’t been afraid to get stuck in without the ball either and is currently second for tackles made in his position (4.1) per 90 although he has also been dribbled past the most too (1.9) per 90. He is also second for fouls committed too behind Brighton forward Facundo Buonanotte.
Much like Badiashile, there are signs that Madueke is a player who can grow into becoming a leading performer for the Blues if only he can tighten up his game and find his rhythm in a more coherent side.
Already touted as the one goalkeeper among the current crop who could come to claim the number one spot, Petrovic has shown some promise despite performing at a level 5.84% below the rating he was awarded in MLS for New England Revolution.
That could just as easily be blamed on the difference in competition between the Premier League and the top-flight across the pond. Perhaps a bigger question for Petrovic, and his rival between the posts Robert Sanchez, is what the future holds for Kepa Arrizabalaga, currently on-loan at Real Madrid and impressing back in his native Spain prior to injury.
He is still the world’s most expensive goalkeeper since joining from Athletic Club in 2018 with a contract that runs until 2025. Interestingly, he is actually performing 1.47% below the level he showed for Chelsea last season when he played 29 games in the Premier League, but looks set to win the La Liga title instead of finishing 12th as was the case last year in England.
What about the rest?
It may surprise fans to hear that after Cole Palmer, Nicolas Jackson stands out as the second-most improved performer among recent signings based on their previous seasons.
The Senegal forward has shown flashes of quality at times in among some wildly inconsistent performances. He is performing at a level 5.10% what he showed for Villarreal. That’s a worry given that he still isn’t close to being the sort of solid striker fans expect to see leading the line but he is only 22 and can improve.
Axel Disasi, Malo Gusto, Marc Cucurella, Mykhailo Mudryk and Robert Sanchez’s ratings have largely been flat against how they were scored for their efforts over the previous two seasons. That’s good news for Disasi and Gusto who have had a decent start to life at Chelsea. It’s less good news for Cucurella, Mudryk and Sanchez who haven’t looked convincing in their time at the club thus far.
While Mudryk, like Jackson, is a youngster who could get better, even at 23 he seems short of the final details to make his impressive pace truly dangerous at the highest levels. A lack of real end product hasn’t prevented former Chelsea target Adama Traore from having a good career but he isn’t the sort of player that teams who compete for the biggest prizes place their faith in.
Then there’s Raheem Sterling. He remains an excellent footballer, but his WhoScored rating at Chelsea is 5.14% below the level he performed at in his final campaign under Pep Guardiola at City. Context here is important. The reigning champions have been the most impressive team in Europe for much of the last 10 years. Despite beating City in the 2022 Champions League final, Chelsea were already a level below the Abu Dhabi-backed treble winners. They have fallen even further away since that final.
Sterling has faced criticism for his performances at times for Chelsea but it is unsurprising that his individual level has dipped since he was removed from a system that enabled the 29-year-old to hit heights that will probably go down as the greatest peaks of his career.
Chelsea have it all to do to ensure they can provide a similar platform to the talented young players who do have the upside to make their owner’s ideas pay off someday.
