Should poor start concern promoted trio Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton?
It has been a tough start to the Premier League season for the three promoted clubs. In 10 combined games, Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town have lost nine and drawn one. They make up three of the bottom four going into the September international break.
A joint record of one point from a possible 30 makes this the worst start from the promoted sides in Premier League history. Fans of all three clubs will already be fearing an instant return to the Championship. Does a season of struggle loom for each member of the trio?
First, there are some mitigating circumstances. Sheffield United, whose 2-2 draw with Everton on Saturday at least got them off the mark, had a difficult summer.
They lost two of their star men from the Championship in Sander Berge and Iliman Ndiaye, while signings like Cameron Archer, Luke Thomas and James McAtee only arrived late in the window. Archer showed his quality against Everton and United should improve once they are able to integrate the new faces.
Meanwhile Luton and Burnley have played one game fewer than the rest of the division after their head-to-head clash on matchday two was postponed.
Luton’s first two fixtures brought difficult trips to Brighton & Hove Albion and Chelsea. At the reopened Kenilworth Road, the Hatters should be more competitive - as they were in a narrow 2-1 loss to West Ham United on Friday night.
All three of Burnley’s matches have been at Turf Moor. However, the opposition has been daunting on each occasion: Manchester City, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur. Their schedule remains tough for a few more weeks, but it will ease up thereafter.
Still, it is notable that none of the promoted sides have been able to carry their momentum from last term into the top flight. We have seen that from several teams during the Premier League era. Burnley themselves won two of their first three in 2009/10, as did West Ham United in 2012/13. Nottingham Forest took 13 points from the first 15 available in 1994/95.
It has taken other teams - even those that went on to have successful seasons - a while to adjust. Reading finished eighth in 2006/07 but lost two of their first three. Ipswich Town came fifth in 2000/01 after kicking off with one win in five. In 2018/19 Wolverhampton Wanderers won none of their first three but ended the campaign in seventh.
There is hope for Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United yet then, but Vincent Kompany, Rob Edwards and Paul Heckingbottom have plenty to think about over the next fortnight.
No team in the division has conceded as many goals as Burnley (11), despite the fact they have only played three games. Kompany’s men were torn apart by Tottenham at the weekend, going down 5-2 to the north Londoners.
Burnley had a league-high 61.1% possession in 2022/23. So far this season that is down to 45.7%, and they are struggling to keep things tight at the back now that they cannot control games to the same extent.
Burnley have continued to try to play out from the back but have not looked comfortable doing so, with Dara O’Shea particularly uncertain. Kompany will not rip up his philosophy but a dose more pragmatism may be needed, especially against the better teams.
Luton created enough chances to take a point against West Ham on Friday, and their direct approach gave their opponents one or two things to think about. Kenilworth Road will be an asset but a lack of quality could ultimately prove costly.
Sheffield United have struggled at both ends up to now. They have conceded the most shots per game at 21.5 and taken the second-fewest at 8.5. Heckingbottom must make them more difficult to play against, particularly at home.
This has been a historically bad start from the promoted trio, but while it is tempting to draw grand conclusions from facts like that, we cannot make any wider point about the gap between the first and second tiers based on 10 matches. After all, just last season all three promoted teams survived relegation for only the fourth time in Premier League history.
The international break will allow Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton the opportunity to regroup after a difficult beginning. Nothing is decided in September and there is still plenty of time to put things right.
One thing is for sure, though: a vast improvement will be needed if any of the promoted clubs are to keep their heads above water.