The 'European curse’ is something that you have to keep in mind when facing a betting weekend such as this. It’s always key to consider the way the teams came through their European fixtures as 4 out of the top 5 leagues offer at least one big clash.
LIKELY BETS
LIVERPOOL vs SOUTHAMPTON: HOME WIN – 1.60
Coutinho's injury will lead Rodgers to prepare a team that won't have that creativity but are ready to be efficient against a side who have only won 1 out of 4 and scored 2 in those games. The odds in Liverpool’s favour seem generous.
SASSUOLO vs INTER: AWAY WIN – 1.75
You can find even better odds on Inter, who came through the derby d'Italia with a lot of confidence. Mazzarri is the right manager to have when needing to stay focused and avoid complacency after a number of compliments. Sassuolo are searching for their first point. They’re not playing that bad, but are helpless in front of goal, which is not exactly the best premise ahead of a game against a Mazzarri side. In fact, Sassuolo are ‘very weak’ in WhoScored's characteristics concerning 'finishing scoring chances' and 'avoiding individual errors'.
MILAN vs NAPOLI: NAPOLI DOUBLE CHANCE – 1.55
Considering what has happened in recent weeks, Napoli should be favourites to win in San Siro (which hasn’t happened since the Maradona era in 1986). However, Allegri knows that suffering a historical defeat would taint his season. Nevertheless it seems pretty safe to consider a double chance bet on Napoli. Watch out for Milan's weakness at 'defending set pieces' against Napoli's strength in 'creating chances through individual skill'.
CELTA VIGO vs VILLARREAL: VILLARREAL DOUBLE CHANCE – 1.45
Celta, who have only suffered 1 defeat, is not an easy opponent but Villarreal seem to be the surprise package in La Liga after holding Real Madrid to a draw. However, while it is true that Celta are ‘very weak’ at 'protecting the lead', WhoScored’s characteristics also show their strength from 'counter attacks' match perfectly with Villarreal's weakness in 'defending counter attacks'.
BORUSSIA M'GLADBACH vs EINTRACHT BRAUNSCHWEIG: HOME WIN – 1.36
It seems that Braunschweig are just not ready for the standard of the Bundesliga as so far they are undoubtedly the worst side in the league. Gladbach are solid at home, with 2 wins from 2 having scored 7 goals and conceded just once. WhoScored’s match forecast suggests that it is very likely that Gladbach will score as a result of individual skill.
TEMPTING BETS
ATALANTA vs FIORENTINA: ATALANTA DOUBLE CHANCE 1.57
Pizarro, Cuadrado and Gomez are all out for Fiorentina, who played most of their typical starting XI in the Europa League. All in all the Viola have struggled to score against teams that are defending well like Atalanta, who last week lost against Napoli only in latter stages of the game. Bear in mind that WhoScored’s characterisitics show that Fiorentina are very weak at 'protecting the lead'.
RAYO VALLECANO vs BARCELONA: BARCELONA -1.5 – 1.53
It’s very strange to see such high odds in this one, considering Rayo have the worst defensive record in the league, conceding an average of 3 goals per game, with their worst weakness coming when 'defending against skillful players'. Against Barcelona, that is the last thing that you want.
REAL MADRID vs GETAFE: REAL MADRID -1.5 – 1.33
This is unlikely to be a goal fest as Madrid produced in Istanbul, but now Ancelotti’s men seem to have finally found their way. It’s important to consider that Getafe’s key weakness is 'defending against through ball attacks', which is Real Madrid’s usual lethal weapon.
STUTTGART vs EINTRACHT FRANKFURT: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 1.57
It’s always wise to back a game full of goals every week in the Bundesliga. This time the chosen one is Stuttgart against Eintracht, who have the second worst defensive record away from home in the league. Meanwhile both teams have scored in 4 of Stuttgart’s last 5 games overall.
PSG vs MONACO: MONACO DOUBLE CHANCE – 2.05
Claudio Ranieri has had a whole week to prepare for this game, while PSG played away from home in the Champions League. Ranieri, who is certainly a manager that knows how to set teams up to defend, also knows that this is their most difficult game of the season on paper. Coming away from Parc des Princes with a result would be huge, sending a warning to Blanc, whose side still haven't performed in Ligue 1 at the level expected of them. They have both only conceded one goal each in their fixtures at home and away respectively.
LONG SHOT BETS
MANCHESTER CITY vs MANCHESTER UNITED: UNDER 2.5 GOALS - 2.00
This is another big clash where avoiding defeat might be the priority for both sides, and that has been something of a trend in the important Premier League games so far. While City had to travel to Plzen in the Champions League in midweek, they didn't have a tough game, while United exerted a lot of energy overcoming Leverkusen at Old Trafford. City are still yet to concede a goal at home, while 3 of United's 4 Premier League games this season have gone under 2.5 goals.
CARDIFF vs TOTTENHAM: DRAW - 3.60
This could be the surprise of the week. Tottenham are getting better game by game, but still have to improve on their travels, having scored only once in 2 games. Furthermore, they could be tired after playing a strong team in the Europa League on Thursday, and Cardiff away is always going to be a tough game, as City and Everton have already discovered. In terms of WhoScored characteristics, both teams are strong at 'attacking down the wings' and weak at 'defending against attacks down the wings', so we could see plenty of chances and the teams cancelling each other out.
VALLADOLID vs ATLETICO MADRID: UNDER 2.5 GOALS - 1.875
Playing at Valladolid is never easy, and Atlético manager Diego Simeone will be more than happy with a narrow win after the demanding fixture against Zenit in midweek, while Valladolid would be content with a draw. Valladolid's games have seen an average of 1.75 goals per game this season, and this could well be another low-scoring affair.
MAINZ vs BAYER LEVERKUSEN: MAINZ DOUBLE CHANCE - 1.80
It was a fruitless night for Leverkusen in Manchester in midweek, and they could suffer against Mainz, who have the fourth best passing accuracy (84.4%) in the Bundesliga this season, and that has already been enough to defeat Stuttgart and Wolfsburg at home. 'Stealing the ball' and 'creating chances using through balls' are Mainz's standout characteristics, which could hurt a tired Bayer.
ST.ETIENNE vs TOULOUSE: HOME WIN - 1.75
Quite possibly the best deal of the week, second host second-bottom in Ligue 1, a solid and in-form side against an unreliable one. St.Etienne's WhoScored characteristics state that they have no significant weaknesses, while they are 'very strong' at 'attacking down the wings', whilst one of Toulouse's many weaknesses is 'defending against attacking down the wings'. They have been exposed in wide areas already this season and therefore the prediction in WhoScored's Match Forecast that St.Etienne are very likely to score from a wingplay situation seems accurate.
