Would Callum Wilson be an upgrade on Chelsea's current strikers?
As Chelsea prepare to host Bournemouth on Wednesday night in the quarter-finals of the Carabao Cup there will be plenty of attention on one visiting player.
Cherries striker Callum Wilson has enjoyed an excellent season so far, earning a first England call-up and subsequent debut goal in the process, and the 26-year-old’s efforts haven’t gone unnoticed, Gianfranco Zola confirmed earlier this week.
When asked about the in-form former, the Blues assistant manager stated: “I’m sure that there are a lot of players linked with us. Certainly Callum Wilson is doing very well for his club and he is of interest, not just for us, but for many.”
It was a very honest answer and won’t that no doubt won’t have pleased Bournemouth boss Eddie Howe ahead of his side’s trip to Stamford Bridge, but could Wilson be the man to solve Maurizio Sarri’s problems?
One thing for sure is that the player wouldn’t come cheap, certainly not midway through the season, so whether or not he would represent good value at this time is very much up for debate. So too is whether Wilson is actually an upgrade on what Chelsea already have.
On current form there seems relatively little debate, with both Alvaro Morata and Olivier Giroud struggling to convince their coach that they should be an automatic pick in the side. Eden Hazard has been utilised in loose ‘false nine’ role too at times, while in Michy Batshuayi and Tammy Abraham the club have two strikers out on loan that will hope to come into the reckoning next season.
For the time being, however, there is little question that Chelsea are light in the centre-forward position, with Sarri failing to strengthen as he had hoped in that regard during the summer. So how do Wilson’s stats stack up against those currently at the Bridge?
Looking since the start of last season, he and Morata are tied on 16 league goals, though it should be said that the Bournemouth star has been more clinical this time around, already matching last season’s tally of eight. His strike rate per 90 minutes (0.43), however, is actually slightly down on both Morata (0.5) and Giroud (0.48) since the start of the 2017/18 campaign.
Pertinently, and unsurprisingly, Wilson is averaging considerably fewer shots (2.42 per 90) over the same timeframe than the two Chelsea strikers though, with Morata’s figure at 3.44 and Giroud’s higher still at 4.24. As a result it’s Wilson that boasts the superior conversion rate (17.8 per cent) by some distance, which is perhaps the most crucial to take into account here.
One would safely assume that the England international would have more chances to score in a Chelsea side that has average over five more shots per game (16.5) in the league than their visitors on Wednesday night. The flip side to those greater finishing statistics is that Wilson has seen more regular playing time, certainly this season, so has had more opportunity to find the sort of form that the Blues strikers have been lacking.
That said, it’s not just Wilson’s finishing that will have caught the eye of Chelsea, with his all round link and hold up play improving substantially this season. That’s something that Giroud offers the club but Morata - perhaps the stronger finisher of the two - less so.
It’s seen Wilson register five assists in the league this season alone, meaning that only Mohamed Salah (14), Raheem Sterling (15) and Eden Hazard (17) have had a direct hand in more goals this season. The latter, of course, is an alternative option to utilise up front but with just two goals in nine league starts in that position since the start of last season, to do so would come at the cost of deploying the club’s best player in his best role.
The Belgian will be the star of the show as long as he remains at the club. Chelsea need to find a striker that can prove to be an astute acquisition to the support cast. One that will nominally take the lead role but assume that of a team player. Wilson has been just that for Bournemouth this season, and the trajectory of his form following on from a series of serious injuries that appear to be behind him is very encouraging.
He could well be a good addition to the London club moving forwards, but whether a player that has never reached double figures in a Premier League campaign will be worth the money Bournemouth would demand is still a big question. Right now he’s better than what Chelsea have, but any move would still strike as a temporary fix to a long term problem.
