Why defeat to Chelsea would effectively end Liverpool's season

There’s no denying that Liverpool’s start to 2017 has been beyond poor. Indeed, of the eight games the Reds have played this calendar year, they have won just one, that an FA Cup encounter against a Plymouth side that took them to a replay. Number nine of the year kicks off on Tuesday night with the welcome of Chelsea in a crucial encounter in the Premier League title race. It wasn’t long ago that Liverpool were considered the Blues’ main challengers for domestic glory, yet their dire run of form has seen them drop 10 points behind Chelsea. 

A win would see Liverpool close the gap once more, but Chelsea undoubtedly have the means to inflict further misery. They have lost just one of their last 15 competitive outings, that coming in a 2-0 loss at Spurs, and bounced back from that defeat in impressive fashion. Chelsea evidently have the quality to ensure Liverpool end January on the lowest of lows and in turn maintain their pursuit for the Premier League title. 

A switch to a 3-4-3 formation by head coach Antonio Conte was the turning point in the club’s season as they transformed their campaign to emerge as favourites for the Premier League title. A 13-match winning run prior to the loss at White Hart Lane thrust the Blues to the summit of England’s top tier and they remain well positioned to lift the title come May given their current performances. In a way, much of that has been due to Liverpool. The Reds secured a 2-1 win at Stamford Bridge earlier in the campaign, in what was the penultimate fixture before Conte tinkered with his tactics. 

That being said, Tuesday’s trip to Anfield could pose one of his toughest tests yet. Chelsea have avoided playing games in quick succession for much of the campaign due to a lack of European football this term, which has in turn enabled longer periods to prepare and recuperate. This is particularly notable in that Chelsea have played five games to Liverpool’s eight this month, with the extra time afforded between competitive matches ensuring Conte and his players can ready themselves for what’s to come. 

While the week started with a comprehensive 4-0 win over Brentford, it ends with a welcome of Arsenal in what could well be a decisive week in relation to where the title ends up this campaign. Blues fans have enjoyed good fortune at Anfield in recent seasons. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last five competitive meetings with Liverpool on Merseyside, winning two, and both of those came in the Premier League. Conte and co. have the ideal chance to exact revenge upon Liverpool and it wouldn’t be a shock to see Chelsea come away with all of the spoils on Tuesday night. 

What’s vital, though, is how Chelsea's defence contain Liverpool’s attack. While the absence of Sadio Mane has hindered the Reds’ frontline this year, the Senegalese’s early return from AFCON 2017 is a welcome boost. He is unlikely to feature from the off, but his possible availability will only increase morale in the Liverpool camp. Even if he is unable to feature, it’s unlikely that Jurgen Klopp will tinker with his usual system, with the German utilising a 4-3-3 formation in all 22 Premier League games this term. While Mane would undoubtedly have increased Liverpool’s chances of just a second win this year, they still have the personnel capable of hurting the Chelsea attack. 

Tottenham proved just how to go about securing victory, with Dele Alli’s two goals following a similar pattern as the England international capitalised on space left between Cesar Azpilicueta and Victor Moses on the Blues’ right side. Chelsea have conceded fewer goals (15) than any other Premier League team, but were made to pay for Moses’ lack of defensive discipline at White Hart Lane and it’s here where Liverpool can exploit this weakness, though much of that depends on who Klopp has leading the line. 

Daniel Sturridge’s underwhelming display against Southampton last week certainly made things easier for Klopp, who is likely to allow Roberto Firmino the chance to continue as the focal point in attack in order to help continue with the club’s fluid front line. Firmino is one of the more complete strikers in the Premier League, with his unpredictability in the final third a benefit to the Reds. The Brazilian is capable of dropping deep to win possession and draw defenders out of position or operating as the goalscoring threat required in any team, noted in his eight Premier League goals this term. 

Deploying Firmino in the central striker role, then, will be crucial in Liverpool’s attempts to come away with a positive result. Here, he can open up space for his teammates to exploit and add to the 51 league goals scored by the Reds already this term. If he does drop deep, it could drag David Luiz out of position, with Azpilicueta forced to move infield and with Moses at times shirking his defensive responsibilities, it could allow the attacker starting on the left – one of Adam Lallana or Philippe Coutinho – a clear run at goal. 

Yet Chelsea aren’t without attacking talents of their own with Diego Costa back in the fold, having scored the joint-most goals (15) in the Premier League this season. Flanked by Eden Hazard and Pedro, the trio have the mobility to put the Liverpool defence to the sword. The Reds have kept just six clean sheets this season, which is a poor return for a side that harbours title aspirations, with the team prone to conceding at any given opportunity. As effective as the attack may be, Liverpool’s defensive woes remain a concern and while they have the personnel to hurt Chelsea, the weak backline could see the Reds slip up once more. 

Either way, Tuesday’s encounter at Anfield could prove decisive in who secures the Premier League title this season. Chelsea sit eight points clear of Arsenal, but must avoid any slip ups to avoid being caught by the Gunners, starting with the meeting with Liverpool on Tuesday night. Klopp and his Liverpool side - who are often at their best against the bigger names in the game as they top the top-6 mini league with 12 points from a possible 18 - must win to keep their season alive after consecutive cup exits.