Team Focus: Wily Mourinho Waits for Liverpool's Mistakes to Win

 

One of the problems with José Mourinho is that he says so much, in such a range of tones, with such a range of intentions, that it’s never easy to separate out the truth from the bluster. He has, though, consistently spoken of his dissatisfaction with his striking options and it may be that, ultimately, that’s what costs him in the league. This has been a strange season for Chelsea: excellent against the top sides and indifferent against those lower down the league.

 

Of 12 games against the other teams in the top seven, Chelsea have won eight, drawn three and lost only once, away at Everton. Even more significantly, since drawing at Arsenal on December 23, Chelsea have won seven in a row against those top sides. Those 12 games have yielded 27 points, or 2.25 per game; the other 24 so far have brought just 51, or 2.125 points per game. There might not be a huge difference in those figures, but there is a huge difference in terms of those figures against expectation. Put simply, when Chelsea have faced teams who have defended deep and in numbers against them, they have struggled to make the breakthrough and – at times – have become frustrated and defensively ragged as a result.

 

According to Diego Torres, at Real Madrid, Mourinho came up with a code for big games, particularly away from home: “1. The game is won by the team who commits fewer errors. 2. Football favours whoever provokes more errors in the opposition. 3. Away from home, instead of trying to be superior to the opposition, it’s better to encourage their mistakes. 4. Whoever has the ball is more likely to make a mistake. 5. Whoever renounces possession reduces the possibility of making a mistake. 6. Whoever has the ball has fear. 7. Whoever does not have it is thereby stronger.”

 

A view more diametrically opposed to that which prevailed in La Liga at the time is hard to imagine. Both sides of the debate wanted control, but while Pep Guardiola and the devotees of tiki-taka sought to achieve it through possession, Mourinho looked to do it through position. He would defend his own goal, pack men behind the ball, wait for the error, then pick off the opposition with carefully regulated counter-attacks.

 

Team Focus: Wily Mourinho Waits for Liverpool's Mistakes to Win

 

In that regard, the statistics for Chelsea’s away wins at Manchester City and Liverpool are telling. At the Etihad this season as a whole, City have averaged 58.7% possession. Against Chelsea, they had 65%. It was a similar story at Anfield. Over the whole season, Liverpool at home have averaged 56.6% possession. Against Chelsea they had 73%. Chelsea, in away games as a whole have averaged 52.3% possession. Against the other two members of the top three, though, they have self-consciously allowed the opposition to dominate the ball.

 

Perhaps even more startling is the shots on goal stats. Liverpool at home have averaged 19.9 shots per game over the course of the season. Against Chelsea they had 26. City have averaged 19.4 shots per game at home over the season. Against Chelsea they had 24. So Chelsea’s approach, their means of taking control, paradoxically allowed more shots on goal. Only three of City’s shots were on target, though; only eight of Liverpool’s. And that hints at the hidden statistic: these weren’t good chances. A lot of them were speculative long-rangers: Steven Gerrard alone attempted 9 shots for Liverpool as he desperately sought to atone for the mistake Mourinho had known would come at some point.

 

Weaker teams than City and Liverpool, of course, don’t mind if Chelsea sit back. The majority of sides would be happy with a draw even at home against Chelsea – and when Chelsea come forward, they make mistakes, as they did – twice – against Sunderland, failing to pick up Marcos Alonso from an obvious corner ploy to give Connor Wickham the first, before Cesar Azpilicueta twice slipped, first to give Jozy Altidore the ball and then to concede a penalty.

 

Liverpool could have sat back. A draw would have been fine for them. But Mourinho, with his talk of weakened teams and his own side’s blatant time-wasting, goaded Liverpool to come forward – as, given they’d won their previous 12 games and seemed to be marching to the title on a euphoric tide of attacking abandon, they were always likely to. They could have waited for Chelsea to make a mistake; instead they made their own.

 

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