The Bookmaker Ratings vs WhoScored battle continues this week with another bumper two-match edition. This time out we’re picking just one tip apiece from both the Chelsea vs Manchester City and Inter vs Napoli clashes on Saturday night.
We’re up against ESPN journalist and Bookmaker Ratings pundit Gabriele Marcotti for the second time this season, with the standings currently at 7-4 in favour of WhoScored. With a point awarded for each correct tip, it was a 1-1 stalemate when we took on BR’s Mark O’Haire ahead of AC Milan vs Juventus last weekend.
Without further ado then, here are Gabriele’s tips for tomorrow’s matches.
Chelsea’s season is effectively over, which means a number of things. They can experiment with youngsters, some players might be saving themselves for the Copa America and there is little pressure on them. Manchester City, on the other hand, want to wrap up a top four spot, because Manchester United are just four points back. I like the overs here, though over 2.5 goals doesn’t offer too much value at 1.8, so let’s pull out all the stop and go over 3.5 goals at 3.25. It’s the combination of Chelsea having no pressure and wanting to play and City’s attacking firepower, especially with De Bruyne back.
This may well be Inter’s season right here. Fail to win and it’s most likely another season without Champions League football, which will have massive financial repercussions. Napoli, with Higuain suspended, aren’t the same and they’ve probably said good-bye to the title as well. But what this adds up to in my opinion, is a game where both sides take chances, so over 2.5 goals at 2.00 is a good play.
WhoScored’s say
I think Gabriele is right to overlook the recent meetings between Chelsea and City given the circumstances, with 4 of the last 6 seeing under 2.5 goals scored. It will be interesting to see whether or not Hiddink continues to field an experimental side it what remains a high-profile game despite the lack of motivation on the hosts’ part, particularly following defeat to Swansea last time out. With both teams scoring in each of their last four meetings at the Bridge, backing goals looks a wise move.
As far as Inter-Napoli is concerned, I’d be less confident in a high scoring affair personally. Aside from Mauro Icardi (14 goals), the nerazzurri haven’t carried a great threat going forwards this season, coming up against a much improved Napoli defence this season (27 conceded). With Higuain suspended, Napoli could also suffer in attack, despite winning 3-0 in the absence of Serie A’s runaway top scorer (30 goals) last time out.
WhoScored’s tips
Chelsea vs Manchester City - Full match preview
There are a few bets that tempt me in this one, but it’s such an unpredictable game to call. Chelsea will never make it easy against high profile opposition but at the same time have nothing to play for. City also look pretty safe to finish in the top four and could go one of two ways after securing a semi-final spot in the Champions League, taking confidence into this game or their eye off the ball. I think goals at both ends is a sure thing and, resisting the temptation to go outright on De Bruyne to haunt his former club, I’m backing Pellegrini’s men to score over 1.5 goals at 2.37. Chelsea have been underwhelming at home, drawing 6 of their last 7 league games at the Bridge, last keeping a clean sheet in the league on home turf back in November.
Inter vs Napoli - Full match preview
In what could well be a decisive game for both sides, with Inter still harbouring feint hopes of a Champions League finish and Napoli desperate to hold off the charge of Roma in third, I think it will be a tense affair at San Siro early on. Indeed, in the last 6 meetings between these two in all competitions there has been just one first half goal scored. Instead it’s a fixture that tends to come to life after the interval, with 13 second half goals in their last 5 match-ups, so I’m backing over 1.5 goals in the second half at 2.20 with William Hill.
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I have Chelsea winning 2-1 vs Man City, and Napoli defeating Inter by a narrow margin, 1-0.