Team Focus: Are Arsenal & United Still a Striker Short of a Title Challenge?
For all the easy headlines generated from his answer, Louis van Gaal didn’t really get into what would have been a complex enough discussion. The Manchester United manager was last week explicitly asked whether you now specifically need a 25-goal striker to win the league.
Van Gaal responded in rather typical Van Gaal fashion.
“Not only [Wayne] Rooney has to score, but other players have to score and we concede less.”
It’s not exactly a clear answer to the question, but then it’s not exactly a clear issue. The reality is probably as Van Gaal suggested, that any good team that is sufficiently balanced has a fine chance to challenge, but there is increasing evidence that a free-scoring forward has become hugely important to actually winning.
Since 2009, every single champion has had at least one striker hitting a rate of 0.68 goals per start, and at least one player hitting 20 goals. We’re now a long way away from the days in 2004/05 when Didier Drogba could score just 10 times and the rest of the Chelsea team would do enough of the other work around him. That just seems unlikely in the modern game, as Chelsea themselves found out to their cost in some hugely attritional games towards the end of the 2013/14 season. United and Arsenal may continue to find it to their cost this season, if they cannot address the issue in the way Jose Mourinho did with Diego Costa.
It makes sense. Given how the accumulation of wealth at the top end of the game has created an effective arms race between the super-clubs, it is little wonder that the top strikers have become the key weapon. They’ll always give you that out-ball, that sense of security that they’ll convert that sudden opportunity. Some fundamental truths of the game will always remain, regardless of how it changes or evolves.
It’s also easy to see what both Van Gaal and Arsene Wenger truly believe about this from their actions, if not necessarily their words. United are clearly looking for a top forward, while that has been the case for Arsenal since Robin van Persie left, as was indicated by the controversial pursuit of Luis Suarez as far back as 2013.
Then there’s the interest both clubs have in Karim Benzema, but that in itself only indicates what a quandary this entire issue is. In this regard, it’s suddenly easier to have more sympathy for Wenger’s long-used excuse that, if he is to buy someone, it must be an obvious improvement. There is not, however, all that much out there.
When you look across the list of the most productive forwards in Europe last season - in terms of goals, conversion rates and shot accuracy - one thing quickly becomes apparent. The lists are dominated by either the unbuyable or the unproven.
On one side, you have the obvious super-forwards already at the super-clubs, as those teams continue to gather up all elite talent: Cristiano Ronaldo and Leo Messi hitting over 48 goals, Diego Costa offering a conversion rate of 26.3% in the Premier League, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
On the other, there are those who have suddenly come to prominence at lower-profile teams, but still without the longer-term form that proves it is there to stay. Bas Dost of Wolfsburg leads both the conversion rate and shot accuracy rankings from the major leagues with respective returns of 37.2% and 62.7%, while Eintracht Frankfurt’s Alexander Meier has shown his eye for goal is itself something to watch. It would seem a little premature for a high-profile side to go straight to Dost, given his low rate of scoring the previous two seasons and the limited appearances last term.
The problem is that the market has ensured there is not much in between, very few players are clearly ready to make that key step up, or prepared to move across. That band is thin, perhaps only consisting of Antonie Griezmann (shot accuracy 48.7%), Benzema (conversion rate 21.7%), Edinson Cavani (shot accuracy 52.2%) and, to a lesser extent, Lyon's Alexandre Lacazette (conversion rate 28.1%).
Even they are merely lighter versions of the same extremes given all present issues. Real Madrid still seem highly unlikely to let Benzema go, while Atletico Madrid have probably sold their quota of stars this summer to even consider the exit of Griezmann. Beyond that, Cavani is still slightly unconvincing given his amount of big misses in key games, while Lacazette is still just 24.
Either way, it seems it’s going to take Van Gaal and Wenger a big price or a big gamble to try and begin solving this striking issue. It's certainly not going to be easy.
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Actually, the answer is right there in your first graphic. The season Toure scored 20 goals in the Premier League, 6 of those were penalties, so in effect their top scorer scored 14 goals (penalties aren't necessarily taken by the striker or top scorer). So it is possible to win the league without a star forward, as long as the midfield chips in with enough goals, or in Chelsea's case, even the defence. It's the less likely route, but it can work too.
@What4 Toure might've had 20 goals but Aguero chipped in 17 goals, Dzeko 16 goals and Manchester City as a team combined for 100+ goals, almost equalising the EPL total goal mark that was set by Chelsea 5 years ago.. Hardly a sufficient example to make mate!!!
@What4 Frank Lampard scored a ton of Chelsea goals for a midfielder, almost the total of a ST. So I think that meant Chelsea were never overly dependent on that mythical 'world class striker'.
@Overmars- Although it was a big reason they won the league last season. All depends on the team's style.
Oh, I wouldn't mind Lacazette in lieu of Lewandowski, even though we'd have to adapt our style around the box slightly due to Alexandre being a small man. Lyon said he wont be sold though, and being in the champions league this season that is understandable. Even though it'll be our loss, I like a seemingly smaller club standing up to a bigger one.
@SteveHyland Lacazette played OK in the Emirates Cup, but is he that much better than Theo or Danny Welbeck? I think Wenger will try and sign an unproven striker if we sell Joel Campbell, or promote a youngster (maybe Chuba Akpom). If he doesn't sign a forward than it's likely that Theo will play more centrally, and if the Ox plays in that RW spot than I HOPE Wenger signs a Coquelin-style player.
@Overmars- His conversion rate proves he is. Clinical finishing is hardly the first thing you think of when it comes to Walcott or Welbeck.
You don't need your top scorer to get a specific amount. You just need to get as many goals as you can as a side and concede as few goals as you can. You also need to know how to win. How to see out away victories by one goal when you are on the back-foot. It would be like saying England can only win the Ashes if one player got over 600 runs in the series, or a team could only win the Rugby World Cup if one player got over 10 tries . It doesn't make sense as there are so many other variables. Anyway, Rooney and Giroud are both capable of 20+ without pens if they don't get injured.
@TacticalMastermind- It's not so much the number of goals, but conversion rate which is important at the top level (in regards to purely goal-scoring stats). You can't have your main striker missing relatively simple chances and both Rooney and Giroud do that. Van Persie's strike rate was 5.4 in his first season at Utd, a big reason why they won the league. Costa's last year was a ridiculous 3.77. You're right when you say there are too many variables to stick a magic number on a striker's goal tally and that will equate to a title win, but it makes winning a lot easier when you have a potent striker.
Although what What4 is saying is true and the role of the Arsenal striker is not just about scoring goals (Giroud is criminally underrated in that regard), I would like us to sign a world class striker who can do what Giroud does and chip in with more goals. Before last season, Giroud was a goal per 7 shots man which isn't good enough. We really need a striker who can hold the ball up, link with he midfielders and bring the wider men into play like Giroud WITH a goal conversion of 1 in 5 to 5.5 shots. Cavani would be ideal but what he'd cost for a 28-year old will likely put Wenger off. Benzema will likely stay at Real so that only really leaves Lewandowski. He isn't playing the role he wants at Bayern and his stats have suffered because of it. If he was given assurances by Wenger that he'd be our main guy then I don't think he'd contemplate staying at Bayern even with their success and that would make us title contenders imo provided Wenger doesn't revert to type in big away games!
Rooney and walcott?
@Mattia- Neither of which are world class, reliable or consistently good in big games. Utd and Arsenal have the pulling power to sign any striker in the world outside of Messi and I feel both need an upgrade to their current main man to challenge Chelsea for the title.