Fantasy football price changes explained and how to predict them

Do you want to know everything there is to know about Price Changes in FPL? We asked 4-time top 1k finisher Abdul Rehman, who uses his 15 years of experience playing FPL to guide us through all the ins and outs.

The price changes in the official Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game help make it that little bit more captivating, especially for the ‘hard core’ and seasoned managers. It adds an extra layer to the game which can be taken advantage of if you know how it works and are willing to keep an eye on it.

With the nature of the fluctuating player values which are based on managers transfer activity it’s possible for canny managers to use this to their advantage over their rivals. But how exactly can you use the price changes to your benefit and where to do you start? Read on and you will find out.

The price changes have been subject of much debate around the fantasy scenes since the game was launched. Some don’t like them and some think it’s the best thing about this game.

Whatever your opinion is, the fact is its part of the game so best try to utilise it to your advantage as best you can.  

This guide will talk you through everything you need to know about FPL price changes and how best to use them to your advantage.

What are price changes in FPL? – The Basics

As I briefly mentioned earlier player’s values increase or decrease depending ultimately on fantasy managers transfer activity. Now of course fantasy managers are likely to buy players who are on form and banging in goals and sell those who are not scoring any points or injured for example.

But it’s important to note that factors such as form, suspensions or injuries actually, have no bearing on whether a player goes up or down in value.

However, fantasy managers are going to make their buying and selling decisions on these factors so if Jimenez scores a hatrick in Gameweek 1 for example you can bet he will rise in price very fast. 

How do the price change values work?

The price change system us really simple. I will explain this in layman’s terms:

Let’s imagine you’ve bought Heung-Min Son for £10.0m and his price increases to £10.6m. Though he would now cost a non-owning manager £10.6m, he can only be sold by you for £10.3m.

For every £0.2m price increase during the time that you own a player, you’ll make £0.1m should you choose to sell him.

If you choose not to sell Son and he rises by a further £0.1m to £10.7m, your sale value would still be £10.3m. If he dropped to £10.5m, you’d only get £10.2m for him.

This poses challenge and opportunity for FPL managers. On the one hand, profit can be made if your transfers are well timed. This increases team value, giving you more funds to spend on the top players.

On the other hand, player price falls can detriment your ability to buy the players you want most.

One thing to note is a player cannot rise in price by more than £0.3, in a single Gameweek.

When do the FPL price changes happen?

This season the price changes occur at 1.30am (GMT). They vary season to season but it’s usually between 1am – 3am (GMT) and it’s the same time throughout the whole season. Price changes happen once a day only.

Best time to make your transfers?

There are different strategies when it comes to making your transfers. In theory its best to wait until Friday when all press conferences are done and dusted so that you have as much information as possible and can react to any injury news or rotation talk etc.

However on the flip side waiting until this moment means you will miss out on all the price rises during the week and will have to buy your desired asset at a higher price or if you are selling, sell at a lower price.

That’s why some managers like to make transfers as early as possible in the hope of making profit on their players and building a high team value, thus being able to afford higher value players in the long run. The key is finding the right balance and in my opinion the its best to wait as long as you can until the player you want to buy is about to rise in price or the player you want to sell is about to fall.

It’s a happy medium and allows you to keep a healthy team value and also get player information to some extent.  

It is worth noting that when there are no midweek games, you can generally make the transfers earlier as the chances of players getting injured is much less.

How can I Predict if a Player Will Rise/Fall in Price?

The official FPL game is not transparent about when and how a player’s price will rise. Whilst we know that ownership is the key factor in determining price, it’s not as simple as “if a player is transferred in X times in a given timeframe, he will rise in price.”

Luckily for us, there are plenty of tools out there that can predict when a player’s price will rise/fall. I would recommend using www.fplstatistics.co.uk.

Price changes and Wildcard

When you use the wildcard in FPL you are able to make unlimited changes to your team without incurring any points hit.  Therefore it’s a prime tool to use to give your team value a quick boost. On a wildcard you can buy players who are rising in price twice in the same week and then sell them for a £0.1m profit.

You can also sell any players who are falling in price in your team and save money or if you still want that player, sell them and once they fall buy them back for £0.1m cheaper. Always be careful you don’t sell a player you have a lot of value tied up in unless you are 100% sure you don’t want them as buying them back will cost you more.

For example if you bought Salah at £12m and he has risen to £13m, by transferring him out and bringing him back in you will lose £0.5m. Of course if you decide to sell him then that’s a £0.5m profit.

Anyone who is likely to rise more than once in the Gameweek should be in your wildcard team. Remember they don’t have to be in your final team and once you have made the profit off them you can simply remove them.

You should also be decisive on when you want to play the Wildcard. It is best to decide in advance to take advantage of a fixture swing or if your team really needs it and activate as soon as the Gameweek ends. This way you won’t miss any price changes.

Summary on Price Changes in FPL

Okay to finish up lets summarise the key points regarding price changes:

• Price changes happen daily at the same time. (This season they take place at 1.30am GMT)
• The maximum a player can rise in a single Gameweek is £0.3m
• Best websites to use to monitor price changes are fplstatistics.co.uk.
• If you sell a player for a profit you only receive half of it
• The earlier you transfer a rising player the more profit you make, but comes at a risk.
• The Wildcard is a great weapon to use to take advantage of the price changes.

You can follow Abdul on Twitter and Instagram for more FPL insight.