Match Focus: Manchester City Must Strike a Fine Balance to Beat Barcelona

It said more than even Yaya Toure ever could that, as he tried to so consciously issue a rallying cry ahead of Manchester City’s trip to Barcelona, he couldn’t help re-asserting why their task is to difficult.

“In football anything can happen, we have our chance and they have their chance and we will see,” Toure said, yet the caveat was always there. “I think it is always difficult to play against Barcelona when you have to run after the score.”

This is the crux that City face, as they approach a game that could define a team’s cycle and decide manager Manuel Pellegrini’s job.

It is also, of course, far from the only difficulty ahead of trying to overturn a 2-1 away-goal deficit. City do not just face an attack as daunting as Neymar, Luis Suarez and the incomparable Leo Messi, who all make for a team on such magnificent form. They also face 59 years of European Cup history. In all that time, only seven sides have qualified from a knockout tie after losing a first leg at home.

That may seem oddly skewed, but it is also quite understandable. If a team is good and calculated enough to win on the road amid the notional caution of a first leg, they’re likely to have too much about them at home.

Barcelona’s specific style of play and specific galaxy of stars only complicate that further. That was emphasised in the way Andres Iniesta could feel confident enough to lay out an effective mission statement on the eve of their second leg.

“We will have to go out there and play in a very comprehensive manner. We need to have lots of possession so they suffer, so they are chasing the ball. We have to control what is going on at every different moment.”

This is why it’s so difficult against them, and what Toure was talking about.

In order to turn this tie on its head, City must turn their approach on its head. They have to go forward in search of at least two goals yet they know - or at least should know - that this is the one team on the planet against which you simply have to sit very deep to stand any chance of winning. Otherwise, all the attacking in the world will make no difference. They'll be ripped apart.

That was precisely the problem for City in the first leg. Despite seven years of evidence that it is football suicide to play a straight 4-4-2 against Barcelona, Pellegrini persisted anyway and predictably gifted the game to the visitors.

As anyone could have foreseen, the Catalan side’s midfielders so simply outmanoeuvred them, with it turning out that Sergio Busquets barely had to do any actual defending. That’s odd for a notional defensive midfielder.

It is one reason why the pressure on Pellegrini's job doesn’t seem all that ludicrous, even though it is only a few months after winning a league and League Cup double. It is also a year since City faced Barcelona at the same stage, yet Pellegrini made even worse mistakes than in that elimination.

He was too confident in City’s own skills, rather than realising that Barca have been the one team in the world where it’s acceptable - nay, essential - to compromise. He selected the 4-4-2 formation City have used most this season, when he probably should have gone 4-2-3-1 or even more congested.

The stats here are slightly skewed, given that City primarily play 4-4-2 against weaker teams - and 4-2-3-1 against those who will expect more possession - but there are nevertheless some pointers for the Barca game.

With a 4-2-3-1, Pellegrini’s side enjoy slightly more possession at 60.6% compared to 59.4%, and that may partially stem from the greater amount of tackles that a greater amount of central midfielders allow them to put in, at 22 against 19.9. They need that kind of aggression at Camp Nou, especially when you consider some of the stats from the first leg.

On a night when Barcelona enjoyed 62% possession, played 686 passes and had 861 touches of the ball, City’s three main defensive players - Vincent Kompany, Martin Demichelis and Fernando - offered one tackle between them.

Before Pellegrini even begins to think about starting on the road to a comeback, he needs to underlay with some proper defensive protection. A 4-4-2 wouldn’t cut it.

It is a difficult balance to strike, but an essential one.

Can Pellegrini's City upset the odds to overturn their first leg deficit? Let us know in the comments below